684
FXUS65 KPUB 151211
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
611 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE ON AREA BURN SCARS, AND A COUPLE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY.
- A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS COLORADO FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL DRY US OUT AND BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
CURRENTLY...RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, MAINLY EAST
OF A WALSENBURG TO EADS LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, CLEARING INTO KANSAS BY DAYBREAK.
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS REDUCING
VISIBILITY ON AREA ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
INTO MORNING WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING,
WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHILE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, KEEPING UPPER 50 TO LOW 60 DEWPOINT AIR BANKED INTO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE NEAR 25 KTS. THE 00Z CAM GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 1 PM ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, THEN SPREADING EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE IS A BIT SOUTH TODAY, WITH THE
PRIMARY FOCUS ACROSS THE RATON MESA, NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER FOCUS AREA WILL BE THE PALMER DIVIDE. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, ESPECIALLY SOUTH FROM THE RATON MESA
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN, WITH THE
PLAINS IN THE LOWER 80S TO NEAR 90, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
ENSEMBLES ARE HANDLING THINGS A BIT BETTER, AND THE NBM GUIDANCE
IS SLOWLY STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY BOTH AFTERNOONS
WILL BE MODEST NEAR 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS.
PWAT VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED ON SUNDAY, DRYING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, WITH FLASH FLOODING REMAINING A
RISK ON AREA BURN SCARS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. FOCUS AREAS ARE STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL
DEPEND ON INDIVIDUAL WAVE TRACKS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE GREATEST ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ON MONDAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
MOSTLY 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A
598 DM HIGH RIGHT ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO BEGINNING TUESDAY,
AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS SLOW
TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND HAVE A FEELING THEY ARE 10 DEGREE TOO
COOL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGHS
ARE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ON THE PLAINS. WITH THE
UPPER HIGH IN PLACE, DRIER AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD, WITH PWAT
VALUES FALLING TO NEAR OR LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THE GFS DOES DEVELOP AN UPPER HIGH, JUST MUCH LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MID WEEK, THEN
BUILDS THE HIGH IN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER SYSTEM WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER, MORE IN LINE WITH THE NBM GUIDANCE. FOR
NOW, CONTINUING TO DISCOUNT THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SIMILARITIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
AT KCOS AND KPUB, VFR THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF -SHRA POSSIBLE,
THOUGH HAVEN'T MENTIONED IT IN EITHER TAF AS CHANCES LOOK VERY
LOW (10 PERCENT) AND ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, AND CARRIED A PROB30 FOR
TSRA AT BOTH SITES 20Z-02Z, BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE AGAIN THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, PREVAILING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE VARIABLE AND
LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SELY 5-10 KTS AFTER 18Z.
AT KALS, VFR WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE THIS MORNING, THEN CONTINUED
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BULK OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
STAYS EAST OF THE TERMINAL. LOW CHANCE (10-20 PERCENT) OF A
VCTS AND SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 20Z-02Z, BUT CHANCES CONTINUE
TO LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BE LIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY BECOME SWLY 8-12 KTS 16Z-18Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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