845
FXUS65 KPUB 162008
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
208 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING ON THE TABLE.
- AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA.
- A BIT DRIER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON STARTING WEDS.
- WARMER TEMPS RETURN THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EASTERN
PLAINS MAY HIT TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND NEAR THE RATON MESA AS OF 2PM. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
ONGOING OVER THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM THIS
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH THE MONSOON PLUME FUNNELING RIGHT INTO OUR AREA, THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED, WITH CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG I-
25, INCREASING TO 2000+ FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA SHOWS 30 KNOTS OR SO OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF THESE AREAS AS WELL, CLOSE TO 60 IN
PLACES.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS, PUSHING
OVER THE PLAINS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTENSIFYING. MAIN
STORM HAZARDS REMAIN ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WITH OUTFLOW
WINDS 60-70 MPH, HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES, HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. FLOOD WATCH FOR ASPEN ACRES REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 8PM.
STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT, WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING THINGS UP FOR
TOMORROW.
MONDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER OUR AREA ON MONDAY, KICKING
THE MONSOON PLUME TO OUR WEST AND GIVING US A SLIGHTLY DRIER DAY.
HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A
WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION, THOUGH NOTICEABLY LESS THAN TODAY. THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS,
SPREADING CLOSE TO THE RATON MESA AND FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER IN
THE DAY, WHILE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. STORMS ALONG THE
TERRAIN WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, WITH OUTFLOW TO 50 MPH AND HAIL
UP TO HALF AN INCH OR SO. IF STORMS MANAGE TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO
MOVE ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS, THEY WILL ENCOUNTER MOIST,
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND BETTER FORCING THANKS TO THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS (60 MPH WINDS, 1 INCH
HAIL) WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL,
SO FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN OVER BURN SCARS, THOUGH
AGAIN COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE BOTH LOWER FOR MONDAY THAN TODAY.
FINALLY, HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
MID-80S TO LOW-90S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
LONG-RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH THE UPPER HIGH EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE
UPPER RIDGE, LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. AFTER MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, LINGERING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH DAY. STORMS WILL FIRST FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A
PASSING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE PLAINS
AS WELL. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH
HIGH-80S OVER THE VALLEYS AND HIGH-90S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH
A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME MORE TRIPLE DIGITS HEADING INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH
24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE PAST KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 20-
03Z, WITH EXPECTED OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS. CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACT AT KPUB REMAINS LOW, SO LEFT AS PROB30. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
AT KCOS HAS INCREASED, SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE, FOLLOWED BY A
PROB30 THIS EVENING FOR WHEN COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SPARSE.
CURRENTLY, NO PRECIP OR STORM-RELATED IMPACTS AT KALS THIS PERIOD,
WITH WINDS MAINLY RETAINING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ079-080-
086.
UPDATE...GARBEROGLIO
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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