650
FXUS65 KPUB 181910
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
110 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THE REST OF TODAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
EAST MOUNTAINS.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEDNESDAY, WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR
THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR. STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS.
- WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
- HINTS AT A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THE REST OF TODAY. WHAT STORMS DO MANAGE TO FORM
WILL LIKELY STAY CONFINED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE, WITH IMPACTS BEING
LIMITED TO VIRGA, GUSTY OUTFLOW, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN. LATER
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, LIKELY BETWEEN 7-
10PM. THIS WILL BRING IN MORE MOIST AIR, SOME GUSTY WINDS, AND GIVE
US A BETTER SETUP FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW.
WEDNESDAY...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THANKS TO THE FRONT. MOIST, SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS, WITH
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDS NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AGAIN, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE ASPEN ACRES
BURN SCAR ALONG WITH OTHER VULNERABLE AREAS. FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT, 1PM TO 8PM. LATER IN THE DAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH THINGS
INTENSIFYING CLOSER TO OUR EASTERN BORDERS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONGSIDE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
MOVING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS, GIVING US
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING OUT EAST, MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARY CONCERN OVER BURN SCARS
AND OTHER VULNERABLE AREAS, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM, REACHING MID-HIGH 80S OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND 90S TO LOW-
100S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
BY NEXT WEEK, THE MONSOON PLUME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR
AREA, GIVING US A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN OVER THE REST OF THIS WEEK, BUT IN GENERAL CONDITIONS
ARE LOOKING WETTER AND A GOOD FEW DEGREES COOLER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH
24 HOURS.
FOR KCOS, KEPT IN A PROB30 FOR PASSING SHOWERS THIS EVENING, 00-03Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS, 25-30 KNOTS, ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY WEDS MORNING.
KEPT A PROB30 AT KPUB FOR THE FRONT, THOUGH ANY SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT LASTING INTO EARLY WEDS MORNING.
FOR KALS, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 24 HOURS. THERE IS
A LOW END CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE VALLEY
AROUND 00Z AS WELL, SO ADDED IN A PROB30, THOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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