233
FXUS65 KPUB 182322
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
522 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THE REST OF TODAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
EAST MOUNTAINS.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEDNESDAY, WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR
THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR. STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS.
- WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
- HINTS AT A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THE REST OF TODAY. WHAT STORMS DO MANAGE TO FORM
WILL LIKELY STAY CONFINED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE, WITH IMPACTS BEING
LIMITED TO VIRGA, GUSTY OUTFLOW, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN. LATER
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, LIKELY BETWEEN 7-
10PM. THIS WILL BRING IN MORE MOIST AIR, SOME GUSTY WINDS, AND GIVE
US A BETTER SETUP FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW.
WEDNESDAY...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THANKS TO THE FRONT. MOIST, SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS, WITH
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDS NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AGAIN, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE ASPEN ACRES
BURN SCAR ALONG WITH OTHER VULNERABLE AREAS. FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT, 1PM TO 8PM. LATER IN THE DAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH THINGS
INTENSIFYING CLOSER TO OUR EASTERN BORDERS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONGSIDE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
MOVING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS, GIVING US
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING OUT EAST, MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARY CONCERN OVER BURN SCARS
AND OTHER VULNERABLE AREAS, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM, REACHING MID-HIGH 80S OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND 90S TO LOW-
100S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
BY NEXT WEEK, THE MONSOON PLUME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR
AREA, GIVING US A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN OVER THE REST OF THIS WEEK, BUT IN GENERAL CONDITIONS
ARE LOOKING WETTER AND A GOOD FEW DEGREES COOLER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EITHER ONGOING, OR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THE GREATEST CONCERN FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP, WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. MAIN CONCERNS
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY, STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. BEYOND ALL OF THAT,
POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, ONGOING GUSTY WINDS FOR KCOS AND KPUB ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN POST FROPA, WITH WINDS HOVERING AROUND 10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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