462
FXUS65 KPUB 190606
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1206 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR TODAY FOR THE ASPEN ACRES (AA) BURN SCAR
- MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- FROM THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WARMEST DAYS
WILL BE THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR. A COOL FRONT HAS PASSED THE AREA AND
UPSLOPE FLOW HAS COMMENCED. DWPTS WERE 61F AT THE OFFICE AT
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE NW FLOW AT MID LEVELS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS, MODEST SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
AND MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE EASTWARD TO KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, ANY STORMS WHICH FORM OVER THE MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER THE AA BURN
SCAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE
FOR FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO 8PM TOMORROW.
AS STATED ABOVE, THERE MAY BE MORE THAN 1 ROUND OF FLASH
FLOODING TOMORROW OVER THE AA BURN SCAR.
SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR, WHILE WPC HAS US
UNDER MARGINAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF CO. IT WILL WOBBLE A BIT TO THE WEST AND EAST,
BUT OVERALL IT WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND, WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
AT OR AROUND 100F OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH DAY, FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE BURN
SCARS. ANY STORM WHICH PRODUCES LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH DEVELOPS
OVER THE BURN SCARS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH
IMPACT FROM A ROGUE SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY FOR
KCOS AND KPUB. DRY CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IMPACTS FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN, REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY,
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BEYOND ALL OF THAT,
POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT WINDS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT, HOVERING AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE. WITH THAT SAID, A COOL FRONT IS STILL SLOWLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD AT THIS MOMENT, AND MAY BRING BRIEF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TO KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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