411
FXUS65 KPUB 191140
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
540 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR TODAY FOR THE ASPEN ACRES (AA) BURN SCAR
- MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- FROM THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WARMEST DAYS
WILL BE THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR. A COOL FRONT HAS PASSED THE AREA AND
UPSLOPE FLOW HAS COMMENCED. DWPTS WERE 61F AT THE OFFICE AT
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE NW FLOW AT MID LEVELS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS, MODEST SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
AND MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE EASTWARD TO KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, ANY STORMS WHICH FORM OVER THE MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER THE AA BURN
SCAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE
FOR FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO 8PM TOMORROW.
AS STATED ABOVE, THERE MAY BE MORE THAN 1 ROUND OF FLASH
FLOODING TOMORROW OVER THE AA BURN SCAR.
SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR, WHILE WPC HAS US
UNDER MARGINAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF CO. IT WILL WOBBLE A BIT TO THE WEST AND EAST,
BUT OVERALL IT WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND, WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
AT OR AROUND 100F OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH DAY, FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE BURN
SCARS. ANY STORM WHICH PRODUCES LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH DEVELOPS
OVER THE BURN SCARS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
AT KALS, VFR THIS MORNING, THEN A PROB30 FOR -TSRA FROM 21Z-02Z,
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER
ACTIVITY. STORMS END AFTER 02Z, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
AT KCOS AND KPUB, VCSH FOR KCOS UNTIL 14Z AS A FEW -SHRA RACE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
INCREASING CHANCE OF -TSRA AFTER 20Z AT BOTH TERMINALS, WITH
CHANCE OF STORMS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 02Z BEFORE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY UNDER HEAVIER
ACTIVITY, WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CLEARING SKIES
THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE S-SW THIS MORNING,
TRENDING TOWARD SELY AT BOTH SITES AFTER 17Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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