988
FXUS65 KPUB 191847
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1247 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING AND MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.
- DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
CURRENTLY...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS OF 1PM.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000+ J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF A CAP IN PLACE THAT
MAY KEEP THINGS FROM INTENSIFYING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. MEANWHILE,
30-40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS IN PLACE, THOUGH WITH THE
BEST CONDITIONS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE FORMING OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFYING INTO TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN WILL INITIALLY BE FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR, DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. AS STORMS MOVE EAST, THEY
WILL ENTER MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND INTENSIFY, BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. OUTFLOW WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOR URBAN AND LOW-
LYING AREAS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET,
THOUGH MOST OF THE CAMS HAVE THE LAST OF THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THAT COULD PUSH A BIT LONGER IF WE GET ANY STRONGER
OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS, BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE ISN'T VERY HIGH.
THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PLAINS WILL BE A BIT WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S, WHILE
THE VALLEYS REMAIN IN THE 80S. LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION TIED TO THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED POPS ASIDE FROM THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN SANGRES, WHICH SHOW BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
UPSLOPING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, SO
WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE BURN SCARS FOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE PATTERN FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE
REGION, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH SOME AREAS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS CREEPING BACK INTO TRIPLE DIGITS. DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH. MOST CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY AS
WELL.
FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN OVER THE BURN SCARS, AS EVEN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CAN CAUSE MAJOR
IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS.
AS OF NOW, THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, STARTING MID-
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING.
FOR KALS, LEFT PASSING -TSRA AS A PROB30, DUE TO MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE VALLEY. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS.
AT KCOS, PASSING THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
21-01Z, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE LATER THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 40 KNOTS, BUT AN ISOLATED GUST COULD POTENTIAL REACH
HIGHER IF A STRONGER STORM PASSES BY.
FOR KPUB, STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS MID-AFTERNOON, HEADING
SOUTHEAST. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THAN AT KCOS, BUT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA A BIT LONGER, UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z OR SO. OUTFLOW WILL BE A PRIMARY IMPACT, THOUGH IF A STORM
DOES MOVE OVER, EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ONCE CONVECTION DISSIPATES IN THE AREA, GENERALLY BY 03Z OR SO,
LIGHTER WINDS WILL REMAIN AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ079-080-
086.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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