984
FXUS65 KPUB 201124
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
524 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 100S RETURN FRIDAY
- HEAVY RAIN THREAT RETURNS TO THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
IT WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STORMS
TODAY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THE FLASH FLOOD WILL BE LOW TODAY (BUT NOT ZERO).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 100 OR ABOVE FROM ABOUT PUEBLO EAST TO THE
KS BORDER, WITH 90S OVER THE RATON MESA AND PALMER DIVIDE. UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S IN THE VALLEYS.
FOR SATURDAY, THE FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIP DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
UPSLOPE TO EASTERN CO AND THIS WILL FOCUS THE MOISTURE ALONG
THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. IN ADDITION. A WEAK WAVE WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE, AND THIS IN TURN
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE.
FROM SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK,, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE SW CONUS,
THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE STATE, AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION. WITH THE RIDGING FLATTENING
OUT, IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS INCREASING FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS, BUT OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE LIKELY AT ALL THREE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ODDS OF -TSRA ON STATION ARE HIGHEST AT
KALS AND SECONDARILY AT KCOS. WILL CARRY A PROB30 GROUP AT BOTH
SITES FOR -TSRA WITH GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 KTS.
ODDS ARE TOO LOW AT KPUB TO CARRY -TSRA IN A PROB30 GROUP SO
WILL CARRY A VCSH WITH A WIND SHIFT AROUND 00Z FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS, THOUGH TIMING AND WIND
DIRECTION MAY BE PRONE TO CHANGE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL SETTLE
INTO DIURNAL PATTERNS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
DROPPING UNDER 10 KTS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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