075
FXUS65 KPUB 210506
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE,
INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
CURRENTLY...RADAR IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. THESE STORMS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
SOME SPREAD EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH. IF A STORM MOVES OVER THE
ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING AN UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, SPREADING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORM CELLS. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES AND CLEARS THE AREA, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO
BUILD NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO PLACE.
WEAK ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE STATE, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA,
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS LESS, MAINLY OUT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS, IF A STORM HITS
A BURN SCAR, FLASH FLOODING COULD HAPPEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT, WITH MID 90S TO LOWER 100S ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING, WITH QUIET WEATHER PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH 50S AND
60S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
PERSISTENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH NEAR DAILY, UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING
OVERHEAD. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DOWN DAY, WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS COLORADO.
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, TWO STRONG EMBEDDED UPPER
WAVES WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. EACH WILL BRING A
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL BE ELEVATED BOTH
DAYS ON AREA BURN SCARS. MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, SEVERAL WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO, EACH GENERATING DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT,
WITH UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT KALS OR KPUB AT THIS TIME, THOUGH LEFT VCSH IN KALS DUE
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE VALLEY WITH SOME POSSIBLE OUTFLOW. A
PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED TO KCOS AFTER 21Z FRIDAY, DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. THOUGH RAIN IS UNLIKELY, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF
OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY DIURNAL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS, AND GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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