114
FXUS65 KPUB 211114
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
514 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY HOT DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WITH
PERSISTENT ELEVATED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
- DAILY SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED STARTING SATURDAY.
- INCREASED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ON AREA BURN SCARS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED RIGHT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, WHILE LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION HAS
FINALLY DIMINISHED. TEMPS AS OF MIDNIGHT WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE PLAINS, BUT OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
DAYBREAK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INITIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT MODELS SHOW THAT ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED. OF COURSE, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT, SO AREA BURN SCARS
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, ANY CONVECTION THAT PUSHES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 90S TO 102F FOR
THE PLAINS. IN FACT, FORECAST HIGHS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, AND IN SOME SPOTS COULD TIE RECORD HIGHS.
FOR TODAY, AUG 21ST:
COLORADO SPRINGS - NORMAL: 83F RECORD: 94F FORECAST: 94F
PUEBLO - NORMAL: 90F RECORD: 101F FORECAST: 100F
ALAMOSA - NORMAL: 80F RECORD: 89F FORECAST: 89F
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS SHOWING A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE REGION,
LEADING TO INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO
PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NW STARTING SATURDAY, AS THE HIGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN. THIS
FLATTENING OPENS THE DOOR FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK UP
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTH STEADILY MOVES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. THIS LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ACROSS THE
ROCKIES, TAPPING INTO INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR AN ELEVATED
DAILY SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY THEN SPREAD TO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT
POPS ARE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE MTS, AND SCATTERED ACROSS
THE PLAINS. FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THIS TIME DUE TO THE INCREASED COVERAGE AND
FREQUENCY OF STORMS, BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF EVERYTHING COMING
TOGETHER SATURDAY MAY BE A LATER SHOW AND NOT EXPERIENCE AS MUCH
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE ACTIVE
DAYS, AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE, SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING AND INCREASED THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ABUNDANT CAPE AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR PRESENT. AS FOR TEMPS, PLAN ON CONTINUED HEAT WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S FOR THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS STARTING WED,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPS.
HOWEVER, NBM POINTS TO WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES, THEN A DRYING PUSH FOR THU. STAY
TUNED AS TRENDS WILL SHIFT. MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH KCOS AND
KALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA. MAIN RISKS WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS. ODDS FOR -SHRA OR -TSRA
LOOK TOO LOW TO WARRANT A PROB30 GROUP FOR KPUB BUT GUSTY
OUTFLOW WIND SHIFTS FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOWARDS 00Z. FURTHER
REVISIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AND THE IMPACTS FROM OUTFLOW WINDS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
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