359
FXUS65 KPUB 212342
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
542 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MONSOON MOISTURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REGION.
- FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE
ASPEN ACRES AND 24 BURN SCARS, URBAN AREAS, AND OVER REGIONS
WITH SATURATED SOILS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE ISOLATED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
OF UP TO 40 MPH - SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR VIRGA WHICH WOULD BE AN
INDICATOR OF STRONG WINDS. UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THERE IS NO
HAIL IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR FLASH FLOODING RISKS THIS AFTERNOON, IT
IS FAIRLY LOW - ONE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE BURN SCAR IN WHICH WE'LL HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING, BUT THE CHANCES ARE LOW (<20%).
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND THE 50S OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THE STRONGER MONSOONAL TAP RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING TODAY COMPRESSES ALLOWING A
WESTERLY MOIST FLOW REACH COLORADO. THE MAIN QUESTION IS IF TO ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR. I
CANNOT SAY RIGHT NOW WITH 50% CERTAINTY OR HIGHER THAT THE BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE A FLASH FLOOD TOMORROW, THEREFORE I WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
WATCH FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. CHECK BACK WITH THE OVERNIGHT
CREW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OVER THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS THE STRONGEST FLOODING SIGNAL FOR THE
ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE 500HPA HIGH IS
COMPRESSED ENOUGH IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
HIGH TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO DEVELOP. SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAS A LOT OF SIMILARITIES, HOWEVER. THE HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE WEST TO ADVECT
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO, SO THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR MOUNTAINS, MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND PLAINS.
WE'LL NEED TO BE ON HIGHER ALERT FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
OVER URBAN AREAS, REGIONS WITH SATURATED SOILS, AND OVER OUR BURN
SCARS, INCLUDING THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB
AND KALS. MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCSH FOR TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z,
WITH A PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT KALS THROUGH 02Z. BROUGHT IN VCTS
FOR KALS AND KCOS STARTING AROUND 19Z-20Z TOMORROW, WHILE KPUB
WILL LIKELY SEE DEVELOPING CONVECTION BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...MOORE
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