058
FXUS65 KPUB 220610
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1210 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK THEN SOME DRYING.
- NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. A BIT COOLER MID
WEEK AND A BIT OF WARMING NEXT WEEKEND.
- STORMS TODAY MAY BE MORE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAN'T
RULE OUT FLASH FLOODING AT ASPEN ACRES BUT NO STRONG SIGNALS
TO GO WITH. ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS
MAINLY THE PLAINS, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
SHOULD DECREASE AROUND 2-3 AM. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY THE LOW LEVEL JET PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A BIT LATER ON DEVELOPING LATER TODAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OCCURRING OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION, WITH
THE ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE FAR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HPC HAS THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION IN MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
A FEW OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US50.
TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY AS THEY SAY YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAYS WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER
STORMS MAY FORM A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY AND WE MAY SEE A BIT LESS
COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH LESS CLOUDS
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY, TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE 2 TO 3F WARMER THAN
TODAY. THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION ARE ONCE AGAIN IN MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FROM MONDAY INTO LATE WEEK, THE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION, AND WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO LIKELY STORMS OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT BY
MID WEEK, BUT TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THE BEST
DAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN (AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING) MAY BE MID WEEK AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT
THE PAINS/S MTNS.
A DRIER PATTERN IS INDICTED BY LATE WEEK NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE
REGION AS A MUCH MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS, AND THIS PATTERN WILL
CUT OFF THE MONSOON FLOW. 100 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND, AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
INCREASE AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES SOMEWHAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FINALLY STARTING TO
DIMINISH AS OF 06Z, WHILE STILL AFFECTING KPUB WITH E-NE SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS. OTHERWISE, PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS, KPUB AND KALS.
BROUGHT IN VCTS FOR KALS AND KCOS STARTING AROUND 19Z-20Z TOMORROW,
WITH PROB30 FOR -TSRA AND VARIABLE GUSTS 21Z-03Z. FOR KPUB,
MENTIONED VCTS STARTING AT 23Z WITH PROB30 FOR -TSRA AND VARIABLE
GUSTS 00Z-05Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
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