808
FXUS65 KPUB 061734
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.
- BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO TAP AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING
MONDAY.
- CONTINUED HOT NOW THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW, AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE CENTRAL US, AND HURRICANE
MARIE HAS PROGRESSED A BIT MORE WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND CO PERSISTS.
CURRENTLY...LINGERING CONVECTION IS TRYING TO CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE, WHILE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK, SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NW PINWHEELING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO.
THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TAPS INTO AVAILABLE MOISTURE, SPAWNING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY, BUT LITTLE BY WAY OF
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL MOISTURE FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CO.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY, SO BEST LOCATIONS FOR
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER, AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIPPING SOUTH INTO
TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
AND JUST DO NOT THINK THAT WILL BE REALIZED. MAIN THREATS FROM
ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 40-45 MPH.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST WILL
DIMINISH, BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN START TO
CREEP INTO WESTERN CO AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, SETTING UP FOR
THE FOLLOWING DAY.
AS FOR TEMPS, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SO EXPECT ANOTHER HOT
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S FOR THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND 60S FOR THE
PLAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW OPENS UP, AND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER PUSHING ACROSS ID ON SUNDAY CONTINUES PUSHING
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SPARK INCREASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN COLORADO
SOME TIME TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER STRONGER
PIECE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MONTANA. THIS STRONGER LOBE
OF ENERGY IS WHAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ON BOTH DAYS,
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND CREEP WEST. WITH
ALL THAT SAID, PLAN ON ENHANCED CONVECTION CHANCES BOTH DAYS, WITH
BEST PROBABILITIES TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY WILL BE A HOT
DAY, MOST LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, THOUGH PERHAPS 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE PLAINS DUE TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CO
ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE FLAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND SETS
UP OVER SOUTHERN CA AND THE DESERT SW. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS,
BRINGING THEM MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE HIGH
VALLEYS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES, BOTH IN COVERAGE AND IN QPF AMOUNTS, ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AND INTO THU, AND THIS TIME FRAME WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN
SCARS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS WANT TO KEEP FLAT HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW, ALLOWING BRISK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON FRI TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT ON SAT AS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKY MT REGION AND BRUSHES ACROSS
CO TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NBM INCREASES MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE INDICATING SOME QUESTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED AS THESE OUT PERIODS WILL
LIKELY GO THROUGH MULTIPLE CHANGES. MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING BECOMES ESTABLISHED, WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED. ALONG WITH THAT, MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BEYOND ALL THAT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH,
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IMPACTING KCOS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, LESS THAN
10%, ON THIS, SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF PRODUCT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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