121
FXUS65 KPUB 062337
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
537 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY.
- PATTER CHANGE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
TONIGHT: FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST. OVERALL,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE, WILL BE IN PLACE AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SITS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. WHILE FORCING
WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE WEAK, STRONGER SURFACE FORCING ACROSS THE
RATON MESA AND PALMER DIVIDE WILL BE ONGOING AS BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MATERIALIZE TODAY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
LEE TROUGHING. WITH WEAK BROADER FORCING, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. THEN ACROSS THE RATON AND PALMER, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL SURFACE
ASCENT OVER THE TERRAIN FEATURES. WITH THAT ALL SAID, ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS ALLUDED TO, WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LEE TROUGHING IN PLACE, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20-35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE RATON MESA
AND EASTERN PLAINS REGIONS, WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST.
BEYOND ALL OF THAT, WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE, PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, GIVEN THE WINDY, AND SOMEWHAT
CLOUDY, CONDITIONS, MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LOW VALUES, WITH THE PLAINS IN THE LOW
60S TO LOW 70S, THE VALLEYS IN THE 50S, THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LOW 40S
TO LOW 50S.
TOMORROW: HEADING INTO MONDAY, ANOTHER DAY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE PLUME, MODEST FORCING, AND INCREASING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BLOSSOM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON, AND SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION, LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT, LEE TROUGHING WITH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE, BRINGING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TO THE AREA.
WITH THAT, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES GIVEN DOWNSLOPING WINDS,
WITH THE PLAINS IN THE LOW 90S TO LOW 100S, THE VALLEYS IN THE 80S
TO LOW 90S, AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES, THOUGH WITH NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGES TAKING PLACE. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END THE WEEK AND
START OF THE WEEKEND, CURRENT THINKING BASED ON ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY MORE TROUGHING INFLUENCING THE AREA BY
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ELEVATED, AS MOISTURE NEVER GETS FULLY CLEARED OUT, THOUGH COULD
CERTAINLY BE LOWERED BEHIND ANY PASSING WAVES. ALONG WITH THAT,
CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT TAKE PLACE. THEN
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, GIVEN THE INFLUENCE FROM THIS PATTERN,
FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGES,
WITH SIGNALS POINTING TO A DIP IN TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, INCREASING
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND DIPPING AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
THAT ALL SAID, A LOT WILL DEPEND HOW THE TROUGHING AND WAVES EVOLVE,
SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS 10-15 KTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KCOS...WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TOWARDS 02-03Z AND BECOME DOMINATED BY LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOWS.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KCOS AND KPUB ON MONDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE
SHIFTING GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. KCOS WILL SEE
THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA WITH KPUB LIKELY TO STAY DRY BUT BE
AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS/GUST FRONTS AFTER 22Z. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT
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