225
FXUS65 KPUB 091912
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
112 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNCHARACTERISTIC PATTERN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND LAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE PLAINS.
- LOTS OF MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING.
- ROLLER COASTER WRT TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
- MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AND FRI OVER PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, MOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IF
ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH 6 PM, THEY WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES AND ISOLATED OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S PLAINS AND VALLEYS.
THE INTERESTING WEATHER WILL BE TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AND A SOMEWHAT DEGRADED MOISTURE PLUME
ALOFT, COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY STOUT DISTURBANCE AT MID LEVELS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN THE DATA. SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
AND WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE PLAINS
LATER TONIGHT.
FOR TOMORROW, THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING, AND SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL BE ONGOING
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY LATE MORNING AND IT SHOULD BE A RATHER NICE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S PLAINS AND MID 80S VALLEYS. SOME
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDER MAY OCCUR ALONG THE MTN/PLAINS
INTERFACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM IN THE MTNS AND BREEZY AT TIMES. AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED, MAINLY OVER THE LA GARITA MTN RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
FRIDAY...WE WARM UP ONCE AGAIN AND EXPECT TEMPS AROUND 90F OVER THE
PLAINS WITH MID 80S VALLEYS. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE WILL SEE A BIT MORE OF A FIRE
WEATHER RISKS TODAY AS IT WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY, AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FREMONT AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES AND
WESTERN PUEBLO COUNTY.
SATURDAY...A FAIRLY STOUT COOL FRONT MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BY
MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS.
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT UP AGAIN, WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID 80S VALLEYS. SHOWERS
WILL BE ISOLATED ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY AND AND MAX TEMPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK FALL BACK DOWN
IN THE 80S MONDAY, WITH EVEN COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO FOR TUESDAY.
WE SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THESE TWO
DAYS AS WE WILL SEE THE MONSOON PLUME GET REINVIGORATED OVER THE
REGION AND A DISTURBANCE COMES ACROSS THE REGION.
IT APPEARS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BRINGING IN SOME COOLER WEATHER AND
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS
AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
ABOUT 0900 UTC TO 1500 UTC. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THIS MAY SEND A MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BACK TOWARDS
THE MOUNTAINS, AND WE COULD SEE A LOW OVERCAST DEVELOP AT THE 2
TAF SITES. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS (AND LOW CHANCE OF SOME
TSRA AT KPUB) DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE VFR AT
KCOS AND KPUB.
KALS WILL SEE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
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