002
FXUS65 KPUB 101109
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
509 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS TODAY.
- MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND KEEPS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TODAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH BRINGS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- UP AND DOWN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS A SERIES OF PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS BRINGS COOLER AND
THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS,
COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE, HAS PRODUCED BULK AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES TO 45-55 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, SUPPORTING
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE IN THE EVENING. STORMS ARE STARTING TO CONGEAL AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY DAY BREAK.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD STRATUS BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH MID MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BRING CHANCES OF STRONG STORMS TO SOUTHERN
SANGRES, RATON MESA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN TIER, HOWEVER, LATEST
HIGH RES DATA IS KEEP THE BULK OF STORMS SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE, THE DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO WILL BRING CRITICAL RH LEVELS OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD AND THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, LEADING
TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER
EMBEDDED WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AREAS ALONG THE CONTDVD
INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND INT THE 60S, 70S
AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EBBS AND
FLOWS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCING AS OCCASIONAL WAVES TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH FRONTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT
SW AND BACK INTO COLORADO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE, AND LIKELY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS.
KCOS AND KPUB: LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING, GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MVFR TO HIGH-IFR
RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 15-18Z, WITH VFR LASTING THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT, AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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