381
FXUS65 KPUB 112336
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
536 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY
- A BIT COOLER TOMORROW, WARMING UP AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY
ONWARD.
- BURN SCAR FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, DRY AND WARM. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATER THIS EVENING, A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BRING IN A BIT COOLER AIR FOR TOMORROW OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 8F COOLER THAN TODAYS HIGH
TEMPS.
WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING TOMORROW, WE WILL SEE A BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MTNS. A FEW SHOWER MAY PUSH OFF THE MTNS ONTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WE WILL WARM UP AGAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES
BEING SIMILAR TO TODAY TEMPS. HOWEVER, POP CHANCE WILL BE QUITE A
BIT BETTER FOR SUNDAY OVER THE CONTDVD. AND WE MAY SEE A GOOD CHANCE
OF STORMS REGIONWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF A
COOL FRONT CAN GET IN HERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE PLAINS DURING MONDAY EVENING.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP DROP-OFF
IN TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONFIDENT
TODAY THEN IT WAS YESTERDAY AS THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A RANGE IN
TEMPS AND IT COOLS IT OFF A GOOD 15F OVER THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS JUST
A BIT COOLER OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
POPS ON TUESDAY ARE GOING TO BE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GREATER MTN/PLAINS INTERFACE AS SYNOPTICALLY
FORCED UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MONSOON PLUME ALOFT AND MOIST SFC UPSLOPE WILL BRING A THREAT OF
HEAVIER RAIN TO THE REGION, AND BURN SCAR FLOODING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE.
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE WED AND
THU AND THE MONSOON TAP WILL CONTINUE.
OVERALL, NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER OVER THE REGION.
\/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS,
KPUB AND KALS.
KCOS - VIRGA AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO NEAR 30 KTS EXPECTED UNTIL
02Z. ENHANCED NORTHERLY PUSH TO 25 KTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.
KPUB - ENHANCED NORTHERLY PUSH TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BETWEEN 14Z AND
17Z.
KALS - BRISK WESTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 22 KTS UNTIL 02Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
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