818
FXUS65 KPUB 121742
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT MONDAY WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- INCREASE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PRESENT BURN SCARS IS
EXPECTED BEYOND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
FOR TODAY, PRESENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE A MORE
ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THANKS IN PART TO THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MORE ZONAL PATTERN DOES LEAVE US OPEN
TO THE PRESENT WARMING TREND WITH AFTERNOON HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND VALLEYS IN UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
STAY CLOSER TO THE 60S TO 70S. HOWEVER, WARM DOES NOT EQUAL DRY
IN OUR CASE AS PRESENT RUNS OF THE CAMS STILL SEE A WEAK PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SNEAK INTO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS EXCESS
MOISTURE AS WELL AS SOME TIMELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN GIVING
US SOME ATTEMPTS AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STILL, MOST CAMS DO NOT SEE THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD TOO
MUCH BEYOND THE MOUNTAINS WITH CURRENT CHANCES OF ACTIVITY
MAKING TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. MOVING INTO
SUNDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SEE A DECENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR US IN SOUTHERN COLORADO, THIS TROUGH
WILL SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH START ITS RETREAT BACK EAST, WHICH
FREE US UP TO SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE. ONCE SET UP, THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW US BETTER ACCESS
TO THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
AND, IN TURN, SEE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND THE PLAINS, CHANCES STILL STAY ON THE LOWER END AT AROUND
10 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE DAY. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING TO STAY WARM SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE PLAINS
AND THE VALLEYS HITTING THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S. MEANWHILE, THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WILL LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SEE A DECENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIG TOO FAR SOUTH DURING ITS
PASSAGE, IT WILL FORCE THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO FINALLY RETREAT
FURTHER EAST AND OPEN A MAJORITY OF COLORADO TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. FOR MONDAY, PRESENT MODEL
AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAKE ITS
WAY SOUTH AND ACROSS COLORADO. PRESENT RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
STILL A LITTLE BACK AND FORTH ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING SOUTHERN COLORADO. HOWEVER, PRESENT TRENDS DO SEE THIS
FRONT OPENING US UP FOR BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE I-25 FOR THE
DAY. THESE INCREASE CHANCES OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MODELS SEE ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILD JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND KEEP
SOUTHERN COLORADO OPEN TO MOISTURE AND SHORT-WAVE ACTIVITY.
CURRENTLY OUR BEST CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH AREAS AROUND THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEEING CHANCES AROUND 40 TO 60
PERCENT. UNFORTUNATELY THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO COME WITH
INCREASE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ON PRESENT BURN SCARS IN OUR
AREA. STILL, THIS EXTRA ACTIVITY ALONGSIDE SOME TIMELY FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEK, WITH PRESENT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S STARTING TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NWS PUEBLO
LONG TERM...NWS PUEBLO
AVIATION...HODANISH
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