520
FXUS65 KPUB 122331
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
531 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP
TUESDAY ONWARD.
- BURN SCAR FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, MAINLY SUNNY MOST OF PLAINS WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 8
DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE REBOUND, AS 90S
WILL RETURN TO NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS, WITH THE HOTTEST WEATHER
(UPPER 90S) POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO. 80S ARE EXPECTED
IN THE VALLEYS. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK AS COMPARED
TO TODAY. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS EAST LAS ANIMAS COUNT
INTO PROWERS COUNTY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT, A SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND THIS AREA WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR. IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SHOWERS OVER THE DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY. THESE
SHOWERS WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS AND
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ALONG A
TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY THE KIM TO
SOUTH OF LAMAR REGION.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER MAY LAST OVER THE
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
TUESDAY, MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS FOR MAX TEMPS. TUESDAY MAY BE ONE OF THOSE
DAYS THAT IT MAY BE TOO STABLE FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS, WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIKELY OCCURING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE AS MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH THE MONSOON FLOW TO BRING A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAIN. LIKEWISE, THE CHANCE FOR BURN SCAR FLOODING
OVER THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
FOR TUESDAY EVENING, SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED REGION-WIDE, WITH THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER, BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL HELP CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS
NUMEROUS FOR FRIDAY. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AS OF THIS EVENING PRESENT RADAR AND SATELLITE WERE SEEING SOME
SHOWERS TRYING TO MAKE THEIR WAY OFF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. HOWEVER, CURRENT INDICATIONS DOES NOT
SEE THESE STORMS PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO KALS
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. REGARDLESS MOST CAMS DO
SEE THESE STORMS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 03 UTC WITH CONDITIONS
HOLDING AT VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR KCOS AND KPUB,
PRESENT CAMS HAVE NOT GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ANY STORM THAT DO
DEVELOP OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACTUALLY MAKING TOO FAR EAST WITH
CHANCE OF ACTUALLY SEEING ANY IMPACTS TO THE SITES VERY LOW.
GIVEN THIS HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE TWO SITE
FOR THE CURRENT PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR
THE PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...NWS PUEBLO
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