444
FXUS65 KPUB 130710
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
110 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- FRONT ARRIVES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ON
BURN SCARS.
- SLIGHT WARM UP AND LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW DEGREES MORE
COOLING IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE IN BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID
AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS BY THE EVENING. THE MAIN STORM RISKS FOR TODAY
WILL BE LIGHTNING, OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE NOT ANTICIPATED, IF A STORM MOVES OVER A
BURN SCAR, FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS, A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY FIRE OFF BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO KANSAS
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH MID 80S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
00Z GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 18Z GUIDANCE,
WITH THE GFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME
ACTIVE, WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. A COUPLE OF STORMS THAT
FIRE OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER COULD BECOME STRONG, WITH HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS
NEAR 50 MPH. SPC DID PULL THE MARGINAL RISK EAST INTO KANSAS AND
OUT OF OUR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT MONDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
BY TUESDAY, LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND DEWPOINTS RISE BACK INTO THE 50S, WITH NEAR 60 DEGREES NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERHEAD. AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. PWAT VALUES BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND SO DOES THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR AREA BURN SCARS.
THE MAIN UPPER VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND CLEAR INTO KANSAS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY LOOK NICE, WITH MOSTLY 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL BE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO, WITH MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED WAVES LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWAT
VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DAILY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS WILL BECOME
ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN PLEASANT, WITH
70S TO LOWER 80S FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS MONTANA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
MOISTURE PLUM EAST AS UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
LITTLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, BUT AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF
SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND KALS. DID INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT KALS
TOMORROW BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z WITH VARIABLE GUSTS TO 25 KTS. KCOS AND
KPUB SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE
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