820
FXUS65 KPUB 140445
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AGAIN MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT UPTURN IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
- FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS, WHILE SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SERN PLAINS, MAINLY IN BACA/ERN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTIES. LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN STORM THREATS, AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WILLOW BURN SCAR
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAINFALL, AS SEVERAL CAMS SHOW RATHER
EXTENSIVE T-STORM COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUPPOSE WE COULD GET A QUICK, WINDY
SHOWER/T-STORM ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH PUEBLO UP INTO
COLORADO SPRINGS, THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST.
OVERNIGHT, INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION DIES OUT TOWARD SUNSET,
THEN MANY MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
(ESPECIALLY BACK TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE) AFTER MIDNIGHT,
SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME RELATIVELY HIGH POPS HERE INTO MON
MORNING.
ON MONDAY, FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AS STRONG S/W TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. NOT MUCH INCREASE IN PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY, AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OVER
NM. THUS EXPECT LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
MIDDAY AS WAVE SUPPORTING IT MOVES OUT THE THE REGION, BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON, DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR
THE EVENING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE PLAINS MAY END UP
FORCING A FEW STORMS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
TRINIDAD/LAS ANIMAS/EADS LINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BOOST MAX
TEMPS A BIT, AND WENT WITH TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
NRN ROCKIES WAVE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MON NIGHT, WITH BOUNDARY NEAR THE NM BORDER BY TUE MORNING.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL COVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUE,
WITH MAX TEMPS 15-20 DEGF COOLER THAN MON AT MANY LOCATIONS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE ROTATES NORTH OUT OF
NM INTO THE AREA, SO EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
AFTERNOON. ON THE PLAINS, AIR MASS MAY BE TOO COOL/STABLE FOR
MUCH CONVECTION DURING THE DAY, THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE EVENING AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVES E-NE,
AND STORMS ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
BORDER POTENTIALLY SHIFT NEWD AS WELL.
NICE MONSOONAL TAP OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS WED-SAT, WITH STRONG
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING, ESPECIALLY
OVER AREA BURN SCARS. MAY START TO SEE SOME DRYING ON SUN AS
WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
EASTWARD, THOUGH REFRESHED POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE BEHIND POTENTIAL
WEEKEND COLD FRONT MAY KEEP STORMS GOING OVER AT LEAST THE ERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. TEMPS WILL DRIFT BACK BACK UPWARD A FEW
DEGF WED-FRI, BEFORE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BACK
BELOW AVERAGE FOR SAT/SUN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM UP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO CO. OVERALL, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND
KALS, BUT WITH SOME CAVEATS.
KALS: PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE CONTDVD OVERNIGHT, SO WILL
MENTION A PROB30 FOR -SHRA BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. BY 17Z VCTS IS
EXPECTED, THEN MENTIONED PROB30 FOR -TSRA AND VARIABLE GUSTS TO 30
KT FROM 18Z TO 24Z. AFTERWARDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VCNTY.
KCOS: MENTIONED WIND SHEAR NOW THROUGH 15Z DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK, WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER AND EASTERLY.
INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION FOR -TSRA AND VARIABLE GUSTS TO 28 KT FROM
20Z TO 01Z THIS AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE
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