140
FXUS65 KPUB 150458
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1058 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT, WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
ON TUE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STAY MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS ON TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA-WIDE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN
SCARS.
- GRADUAL DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES AFTER TOMORROW WILL STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
RATHER SPARSE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH ACTIVITY WAS BUILDING OVER THE ERN SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
SRN SANGRES AS OF 130 PM, WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS ON THE
PLAINS IN BACA COUNTY AS WELL. CAMS SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE
INCREASES AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND A STRONGER STORM
OR TWO LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST, WHERE CAPE IS OVER
1000 J/KG. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL THREAT NEAR THE KS BORDER. CONVECTION FADES AWAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A FEW
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUE MORNING, ESPECIALLY BACK OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. COLD FRONT RACES
QUICKLY THROUGH THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH BOUNDARY NEAR
THE NM BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH
WINDS OF 30-40 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER EL PASO
COUNTY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
MUCH COOLER TUE BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
WHERE HIGHS WILL RUN SOME 15-20 DEGF LOWER THAN MON. LESS
DRAMATIC COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WERE TEMPS WILL DRIFT
DOWNWARD ONLY A FEW DEGREES. AIR MASS ON THE PLAINS WILL
INITIALLY BE TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS TUE, WHILE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SOME
WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR TUE NIGHT AS
STORMS DRIFT EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS MAY SEE T-STORMS OVERNIGHT, AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NERN NM MOVES NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
STILL APPEARS STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP DEVELOPS WED-FRI,
WITH TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (ESPECIALLY
SWRN MTS), WHILE THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE LIGHTER
AMOUNTS/LOWER POPS. BURN SCAR FLASH FLOOD WILL INCREASE WED-FRI,
THOUGH HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY STAY WEST OF THE ASPEN ACRES SCAR
IF MODEL QPF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT. MAY START TO SEE SOME
DRYING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA SAT, WITH DRIER AIR
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN/MON, THOUGH MODEL SPREAD BECOMES RATHER
WIDE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, AND AT LEAST A FEW
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP DAILY PRECIP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL DRIFT BACK BACK UPWARD A FEW DEGF WED-FRI,
BEFORE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BACK BELOW AVERAGE
FOR SAT/SUN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-35KTS TO COS AND PUB BY 10-12Z.
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 15-25KTS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG WITH VFR CIGS. CURRENTLY LOOKS
TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTION AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
MOUNTAIN STORMS.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALS THIS EVENING COULD LEAD TO
IFR FOG DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCFG AT THIS TIME. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFT 18Z WITH PROB30 FOR STORMS AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW
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