319
FXUS65 KPUB 161813
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1213 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SAN JUANS.
- MORE WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- POTENTIALLY WARMER AND DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 134 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES, AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AT THIS TIME. GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM OLD MEXICO
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
INDICATING ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WESTERN COLORADO SPREADING ACROSS
THE CONTDVD, ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS LIFTING OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS MODEST AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH AN EMBEDDED
WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WESTERN COLORADO INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTDVD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SAN JUAN MTNS AND INTO THE UPPER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT AT NOON TODAY,
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED, WILL SEE
ANOTHER AROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL, WITH
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE PASSING STORMS.
WITH THAT SAID, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RECENT WILLOW AND ASPEN ACRES
BURN AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, HOWEVER, WE CONTINUE TO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SAID FLOODING TO SUPPORT TO ADDITIONAL FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE BURN AREAS AT THIS TIME.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS,
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES MID LEVEL WARMING KEEPING CONVECTION CAPPED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS POPPING ALONG
A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE RATON MESA INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO WESTERN COLORADO LEADING
AROUND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD ONCE
AGAIN, WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MTNS AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REST OF
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS CAN MOVE
ACROSS THE RECENT BURN AREAS. FURTHER EAST, DESPITE TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS, LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST MID LEVEL WARMTH TO KEEP MOST CONVECTION CAPPED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW, THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH UVV WITH EMBEDDED
PASSING WAVES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO, BOTH
DAYS.
THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH NBM
KEEPING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
AT KALS, VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
A TSRA WILL BE IN THE 21Z-03Z TIMEFRAME, WITH REDUCED CIGS/VIS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. STILL A
CHANCE OF AN OCCASIONAL SHRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
AT KCOS AND KPUB, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL CARRY A PROB30 FOR A SHRA AT BOTH SITES MAINLY THIS
EVENING, AS WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVES EAST OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF -TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE (10-20
PERCENT) OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE, WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COZ067-068.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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