159
FXUS65 KPUB 162026
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
226 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH A HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS.
- GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
- POTENTIALLY WARMER AND DRIER FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER SUNDAY OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
CURRENTLY, CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER/NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS NEXT WAVE OF STORMS
OVER NM BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH INTO CO. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING, WITH A
FEW CAMS NOW SHOWING AT LEAST SOME STORMS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS AFTER 5-6 PM. HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY, AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
THE ERN SAN JUANS LOOKS GOOD AS SW MID LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES
PRECIP HERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA BURN SCARS FOR FLOOD
POTENTIAL AS WELL, AS 18Z HRRR BRINGS SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ASPEN ACRES SCAR THIS EVENING. INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
THEN LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, THOUGH NEXT
EMBEDDED S/W TROUGH WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE CONVECTION OVER AT LEAST
THE SAN JUANS BY SUNRISE. ON THURSDAY, WAVE COMES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING, WITH MOSTLY SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. SECOND WAVE THEN SPARKS A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THU AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A FEW
STORMS ON THE PLAINS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH (FROM TRINIDAD TO
EADS) AS WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING
THEN MOST ACTIVITY ENDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT, AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS ACROSS SRN CO. ON FRIDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
MORE WLY COMPONENT, AS WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE WIDESPREAD STORMS ONCE AGAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL PERHAPS SHIFTING A
LITTLE EASTWARD INTO THE ERN MOUNTAINS BY EVENING. WEAK COLD
FRONT ON THE PLAINS BY FRI EVENING MAY ALSO HELP ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. UPPER LOW
THEN CLOSES OFF OVER WY ON SAT, WITH TROUGH AXIS INTO WRN CO BY
SAT NIGHT. MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY SEE SOME
DRYING AS MAIN MOIST PLUME IS PUSHED EASTWARD, THOUGH STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS.
EASTERN PLAINS MAY BECOME ACTIVE LATE SAT AFTERNOON, AS COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH, BRINGING AN ENHANCED SURGE OF USPLOPE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BEHIND IT. BEST FORCING MAY BE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA IN NERN CO, THOUGH STILL EXPECT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/PLAINS, ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE SAT AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE EVENING. COOLER ON SUNDAY,
WITH MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL A QUESTION IF POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS SUN/MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS AT LEAST A FEW MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A DRIER SOLUTION. CURRENT NBM FORECAST LEANS WET, SO STILL
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK. A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST, WHICH SUGGESTS READINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
AT KALS, VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
A TSRA WILL BE IN THE 21Z-03Z TIMEFRAME, WITH REDUCED CIGS/VIS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. STILL A
CHANCE OF AN OCCASIONAL SHRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
AT KCOS AND KPUB, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL CARRY A PROB30 FOR A SHRA AT BOTH SITES MAINLY THIS
EVENING, AS WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVES EAST OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF -TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE (10-20
PERCENT) OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE, WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COZ067-068.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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