731
FXUS65 KPUB 190719
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
119 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, WITH
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-25.
- WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR WHERE
AND WHEN THE MOST RAIN WILL FALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST,
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING IN WITH THE
TROUGH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH BEST COVERAGE
BEING SOME SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BEFORE
ACTIVITY FOLLOWS THE PASSING WAVE TO THE EAST. ONCE IT REACHES THE
PALMER DIVIDE, EXISTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTERACT WITH AN INCOMING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH, INCREASING BOTH THE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH SOME
MODELS INDICATING OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR.
AS SUCH, SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH A
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PORTIONS OF OUR PLAINS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
SPECIFIC TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOOKING THROUGH THE CAMS,
DIFFERENT MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE,
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION, AND THE INCOMING FRONT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS.
SOME HAVE CONVECTION POPPING OVER THE PALMER AS EARLY AS NOON, WHILE
OTHERS WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL CERTAINLY START RAMPING
UP AFTER MIDDAY, THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LATER ON, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL, POSSIBLY LINING OUT AS CONVECTION PUSHES INTO
KANSAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH BRISK WEST WINDS ALOFT.
MEANWHILE, THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON, GIVING US EVERYTHING WE NEED FOR SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE A GOOD FETCH OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS, APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND INCREASING A BIT FURTHER
EAST. WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY, 40-45 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WELL WITHIN EXPECTATIONS AS WELL. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES PAST, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS, GIVING PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR STORMS TO FIRE AND
INTENSIFY. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THIS FRONT,
WHICH WILL FIRST HIT THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS THE BEST
FORCING DEPARTS OUR AREA, LEAVING SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
STILL A GOOD BIT OF VARIATION IN THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE REGARDING
NEXT WEEK. STILL EXPECTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO MOVE ONTO THE CA
COAST, PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THAT,
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY, MOVING THE WAVE AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS
AND WITH DIFFERENT TRACKS, WHICH WILL HAVE PALPABLE IMPACTS ON HOW
OUR LOCAL WEATHER EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, NBM
CONSENSUS HAS LEANED TOWARDS AND OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN
FOR OUR AREA, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITHIN INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTNS INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND HAVE ADDED PROB30S FOR -TSRA AT BOTH COS
AND PUB AFT 20Z. DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT ALS AFT 10Z, HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE ANY LOW CIGS AND VIS ATTM. OTHERWISE, LIGHT DIURNAL
WIND REGIMES AT THE TERMINALS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE TERMINALS AFT 18Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MW
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