954
FXUS65 KPUB 041723
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (EXCEPT
TUESDAY WE MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO).
- PATTERN MAY BECOME ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 11 OCT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION LATER TODAY, AS MAX TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY OCCUR OVER
THE CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON, NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
TEMPS WILL WARM UP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS RELATIVELY LIGHT NW FLOW AT
MID LEVELS INDUCES A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO
AROUND 80 ON THE PLAINS AND 70S IN THE VALLEYS.
FOR TUESDAY, A BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS, AND WE MAY SEE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER PUSHING ONTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR (ESPECIALLY IN N EL PASO COUNTY). TEMPS WILL WARM UP A FEW
DEGREES ON THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS, WITH LOWER TO MID 80S PLAINS
AND 70S VALLEYS.
FROM WED THRU SAT, TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AND CANNOT RULE OUT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MTNS, BUT PLAINS WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 80 PLAINS AND NEAR 70 VALLEYS.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (PRIOR TO INGESTING 00 UTC GUIDANCE) BEGINS TO
SHOW INCREASING RANGE IN TEMP VALUES STARTING SUNDAY AS LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT. GFS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (PRIOR TO
00 UTC) IS LEANING TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE EC GUIDANCE SHOWS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. LIKEWISE, GFS
IS MUCH WARMER WHILE EC IS COOLER AND POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID, THE 00 UTC GFS GUIDANCE HAS A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN, SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 12 UTC EC GUIDANCE.
IN A NUTSHELL...IT APPEARS THAT THE WX MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING NEXT WEEK. \/HODANISH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW DIURNAL FLOW PATTERNS, WITH KCOS
AND KPUB EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS, 20-25 KNOTS, THIS AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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