674
FXUS65 KPUB 051052
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
452 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (EXCEPT
TUESDAY WE MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO).
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A COOLER(COLDER?)/ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
FOR TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM UP, AND EXPECT MAX
TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS TO WARM UP 2 TO 4 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS. OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS, TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN WE MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE MTNS ALONG THE NM
BORDER BEING FAVORED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
OVER THE MTNS. ON THIS DAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPWARD LIFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ASSISTING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION MOVE OVER THE N EL PASO COUNTY REGION. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH MID 80S OVER THE PLAINS
AND 70-75F OVER THE VALLEYS.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THESE
DAYS. WE WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH 65-70F IN THE VALLEYS.
THINGS START TO CHANGE SUNDAY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE TEMPS
WILL DECREASE SEVERAL DEGREES REGION WIDE ON THIS DAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW
MUCH COOLER IT WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE VARIABILITY IN THE MAX
TEMP FCST DATA SHOW A RATHER LARGE RANGE. THIS LARGE RANGE IN TEMPS
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, POP CHANCES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY/MID WEEK WITH SCATTERED
POPS OVER THE PLAINS. PERUSING THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
SHOWS A STOUT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PRODUCTS VARY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME HEAVIER SNOW FALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CONTDVD REGION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH COOLER (MUCH COOLER?) TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS.
\/HODANISH
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KCOS, KALS AND KPUB TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS
AT TIMES IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15 KTS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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