695
FXUS65 KPUB 060514
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A RATHER
AMORPHOUS PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN, WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A WEAKENING CIRCULATION TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
WITH GOES BLENDED TOTAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A SLIGHT BUMP IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS OF NOON, AND READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS SAID WEAK
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
AMORPHOUS RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS KEEPS WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE BUMP IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES BESTING A RECORD HIGH BEING AT COS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE CURRENT
RECORD FOR OCTOBER 6TH ONLY 82F SET IN 1993 AND AGAIN IN 2007.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE OFFING
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AHEAD OF STOUT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY, MODELS INDICATE SAID PAC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO BREEZY TO POSSIBLY
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS NORMALLY WOULD
INDICATE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, HOWEVER, LATEST FUELS UPDATES
ARE COMING IN NON-CRITICAL AT THIS TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS
OVER AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY, DEPENDENT ON THE MOVEMENT
OF SECONDARY ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS STRONGER SYSTEM, COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE OFFING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
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