165
FXUS65 KPUB 060607
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1207 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A FEW MORE SHOWERS/-TSRA TODAY AND TOMORROW
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE A RATHER IMPACTFUL EVENT AS A
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE, STOUT, PACIFIC 500 MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS A JET STREAK DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH, AND AN AREA OF
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RECORD TODAY, AS KCOS RECORD
IS ONLY 82 AND THE FCST IS FOR 84. PUEBLO RECORD IS 91, AND THE MAX
TEMP IS FCST TO BE 87. ALAMOSA RECORD IS 79 AND THE FCST HI TEMP IS
75.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
FOR WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE REGION,
HOWEVER WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME WEAK FAVORABLE LIFT OVER THE REGION
AS THE JET WILL STILL REMAIN JUST OT OUR WEST AND SOUTH. LIKEWISE
WILL STILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS TODAY,
HOWEVER WE WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, TEMPERATURE WILL BE SIMILAR ALL 3
DAYS, WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND 65 TO 70
OVER THE MTNS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY THINGS ARE LIKELY GOING TO BEGIN TO OCCUR AS A STRONG PACIFIC
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO DEVELOP A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS.
BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC SHOW THIS TROUGH, BUT
DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE/ORIENTATION/TRACK AND TIMING ARE NOTED
BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE, AND THIS VARIABILITY IS SHOWN IN THE
STATISTICAL PRODUCTS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL
GET MUCH COOLER/(COLDER) EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AND THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL, HOW IMPACTFUL THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION, AND THIS WILL DEPEND HOW MUCH MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONES OFF THE MEXICAN COAST WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL THIS COULD BE A HIGHER IMPACTFUL EVENT
AFFECTING OUR REGION NEXT WEEK. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
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