050
FXUS65 KPUB 062347
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION STARTING ON SUNDAY,
THOUGH IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TODAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY FOR THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
80S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND LOW-MID 70S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
THIS AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE SAN
JUANS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE, WHILE THE PLAINS
REMAIN DRY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH A BIT MORE LIFT OVER OUR
REGION. HIGHS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY, AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY MANAGE DRIFT EAST ONTO I-25, AS
WELL AS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TOO, DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO WEDS EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE WARM, IN THE LOW-MID 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE
70S OVER THE VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE LA GARITAS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY,
WITH COVERAGE BEING MUCH MORE ISOLATED ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE STARTS TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS, THOUGH COVERAGE STILL LOOKS
SCATTERED AT BEST.
SUNDAY AND ONWARDS, ACTIVITY WILL START TO INCREASE AS A PAIR OF
DEEPENING UPPER LOWS SET UP, ONE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER SW OF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS WELL, FUNNELING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
BEYOND THAT, MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY START TO VARY AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE PATH,
SPEED, AMPLITUDE, AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. GENERAL
CONFIDENCE IS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL NEED MORE TIME TO COME
INTO FOCUS AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE OFFING AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS LED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY, WITH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING ACROSS THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS NOT EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS AGAIN TOMORROW. WINDS AT THE TERMINALS TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MW
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