003
FXUS65 KPUB 071734
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BIT COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
- ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY,
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RAMP UP ALONG THE DIVIDE SATURDAY, STILL WARM
PLAINS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK. IT COULD GET RATHER IMPACTFUL AS A FAIRLY HIGH
AMPLITUDE STOUT PACIFIC 500 MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
IT WILL BE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION, AND ONLY ISOLATED (IF
ANY) SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. IT
WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER TODAY OVER THE REGION AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT COMES ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
THURSDAY, ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT IT
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARM ON THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. FRIDAY
WILL BE DITTO TO THURSDAY, WITH MAYBE ANOTHER 1 DEGREE OR TWO
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY, THE MAIN CHANGE THIS DAY WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR
THE PLAINS, SATURDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MORE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED
AND THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE DIVIDE,
AND LIKEWISE, TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON THE LARGE SCALE, THE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL CHANGE AS FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST.
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BECOMES A FULL
LONGITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST AS THE MAIN PACIFIC
TROUGH INTERACTS/MERGES WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OFF THE
MEXICAN COAST. FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
BECOMES SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES. THIS WILL PUSH
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT QUITE A FEW SHOWERS TO BE
OCCURRING OVER THE CONTDVD REGION ON THIS DAY. THIS IS CLEARLY
REFLECTED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AS POINT FORECAST FOR THE
WOLF CREEK REGION SHOWS HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING DURING THE LATTER
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE PLAINS ON
THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY, BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.
FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, SPEED, FLOW ORIENTATION AND MOISTURE WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD, THERE IS STILL LOFTS OF UNCERTAINTY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE GETTING COOLER OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION NEXT WEEK AND IT WILL BE WET OVER THE CONTDVD
REGION, BUT HOW COOL AND WET (WHITE) STILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED.
BASED ON THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATER ON WEDNESDAY. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THIS PERIOD. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE COS WHERE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER MAY MOVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS.
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, SLIGHTLY STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS AND HAVE ADDRESSED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A
TEMPO GROUP. OUTSIDE OF THIS POSSIBILITY, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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