990
FXUS65 KPUB 072338
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
538 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RAMP UP ALONG THE DIVIDE SATURDAY, STILL
WARM ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK. IT COULD GET RATHER IMPACTFUL AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FOCUSED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHERE A SMALL BUT TIGHTLY PACT
VORT MAX IS LOCATED. ADDITIONALLY, HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN RESIDES IN THIS LOCATION. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON TOO, AS
700MB FLOW IS SITUATED RIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE WEAK, IT
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE WETS AND RAMPARTS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
TEENS ARE ONCE AGAIN OBSERVED. THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE MID LEVELS
NOTE A DOWNWARD TREND ON FRIDAY, AS THE ENERGY WEAKENS/DAMPENS
WITHIN THE BROADER BAGGY FLOW. SO, WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
SATURDAY, THE MAIN CHANGE THIS DAY WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS
FOR THE PLAINS, SATURDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MORE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED
AND THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE DIVIDE,
AND LIKEWISE, TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON THE LARGE SCALE, THE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL CHANGE AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MOST
OF THE COLUMN AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS AND BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST.
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BECOMES A FULL
LONGITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST AS THE MAIN PACIFIC
TROUGH INTERACTS/MERGES WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OFF THE
MEXICAN COAST. FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
BECOMES SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES. THIS WILL PUSH
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT QUITE A FEW SHOWERS TO BE
OCCURRING OVER THE CONTDVD REGION ON THIS DAY. THIS IS CLEARLY
REFLECTED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AS POINT FORECAST FOR THE
WOLF CREEK REGION SHOWS HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING DURING THE LATTER
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE PLAINS ON
THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY, BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.
FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, SPEED, FLOW ORIENTATION AND MOISTURE WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD, THERE IS STILL LOFTS OF UNCERTAINTY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE GETTING COOLER OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION NEXT WEEK AND IT WILL BE WET OVER THE CONTDVD
REGION, BUT HOW COOL AND WET (WHITE) STILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED.
BASED ON THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATER ON WEDNESDAY. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WIND REGIMES ARE
EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL DIMINISH AND END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, LEADING
TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR SET UP
FOR TOMORROW, WITH MORE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW
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