770
FXUS65 KPUB 081139
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY, POSSIBLY
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY, THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE STARTING
SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
CURRENTLY...CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT,
WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS, AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...VERY SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY EXPECTED, WITH
HIGH TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER, AND ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. MAIN
THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR THE PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN
DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 50S FOR
THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
FRIDAY...UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTS TO A MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, AS A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE COASTLINE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MODELS INDICATE EVEN MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE
MTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY TIED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS PUSH UPWARD TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
FOR SOME SPOTS. BY LATE FRI NIGHT, THE PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO
DEEPEN AND DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST, SETTING UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR THE PLAINS.
SATURDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE UPPER PATTERN START TO TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY, AS THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
AND ABSORBS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS, FEEDING THIS MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN CO AND DRAMATICALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SIMON STARTS TO PUSH NORTH ALONG THE
MEXICO COASTLINE. FORECAST QPF TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY TOTAL TO
AROUND .4 TO .5 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS, WHILE THE REST
OF THE DIVIDE RECEIVES LESSER AMOUNTS. WHILE THE HIGH VALLEYS WILL
COOL A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES, THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN HOT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 80S TO NEAR 90F ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONG PACIFIC LOW SYSTEM STAYS ANCHORED ALONG
THE CA COAST BOTH DAYS, KEEPING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE REMNANTS OF SIMON SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE MEXICO
COASTLINE AND EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND PUSHED
INTO CO, CONTINUING RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT
MAINLY FOCUSING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE SOUTHERN MTS.
FORECAST QPF FOR THE SW MTS FOR BOTH DAYS EQUALS TO AROUND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF ADDITIONAL WATER, SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED ON FOLLOWING SHIFTS IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT.
AS FOR TEMPS, HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANGE TO THAT, STARTING TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
WEEK, AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA AND NV ON
TUE, THEN ACROSS CO ON WED. THIS PATH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP
CHANCES TO ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
WED. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS AS WELL, AS THE COLD FRONT
LATE MON EVENING COMBINES WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE PLAINS. TUE AND WED
WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE MTS AS WELL, AS
SNOW LEVELS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER. MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS COULD SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS AT KPUB AND KALS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 KTS. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
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