859
FXUS65 KPUB 090456
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1056 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AGAIN ON FRIDAY, THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE STARTING
SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT STAYING
RATHER ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. LACKING SUPPORT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HELP KEEP THIS TREND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE IN
THESE AREAS THOUGH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON FRIDAY,
BUT AGAIN, LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HELP KEEP
PRECIP ISOLATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WILL SEE CONDITIONS COOL TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND
WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF COOLER TEMPS, DID LOWER MINS TO THE
MID 30S ACROSS THE VALLEY. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE, HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE VALLEY FROM 2
AM TO 9 AM MDT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
SATURDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE UPPER PATTERN START TO TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY, AS THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH AND ABSORBS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS, FEEDING
THIS MOISTURE INTO WESTERN CO AND DRAMATICALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SIMON
STARTS TO PUSH NORTH ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE. FORECAST QPF
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY TOTAL TO AROUND .4 TO .5 OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS, WHILE THE REST OF THE DIVIDE RECEIVES
LESSER AMOUNTS. WHILE THE HIGH VALLEYS WILL COOL A COUPLE
DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES, THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN HOT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 80S TO NEAR 90F ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONG PACIFIC LOW SYSTEM STAYS ANCHORED ALONG
THE CA COAST BOTH DAYS, KEEPING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE REMNANTS OF SIMON SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE MEXICO
COASTLINE AND EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND PUSHED
INTO CO, CONTINUING RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT
MAINLY FOCUSING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE SOUTHERN MTS.
FORECAST QPF FOR THE SW MTS FOR BOTH DAYS EQUALS TO AROUND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF ADDITIONAL WATER, SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED ON FOLLOWING SHIFTS IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT.
AS FOR TEMPS, HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANGE TO THAT, STARTING TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
WEEK, AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA AND NV ON
TUE, THEN ACROSS CO ON WED. THIS PATH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP
CHANCES TO ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
WED. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS AS WELL, AS THE COLD FRONT
LATE MON EVENING COMBINES WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE PLAINS. TUE AND WED
WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE MTS AS WELL, AS
SNOW LEVELS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER. MOORE
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WIND REGIMES REMAIN
EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STORM, WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. THIS CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ069>071.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW
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