500
FXUS65 KPUB 090631
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1231 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS MORNING THROUGH
9 AM.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY, THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE STARTING
SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR SOME EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FOR THE PLAINS. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST
MORNING TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTS TO A MORE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY, AS A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. MEANWHILE, TWO OTHER FEATURES
BEGIN TO MAKE WAVES - A TRANSIENT UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, AND A SEPARATE LOW CENTER OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
ABSORBS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE RACHEL THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AFTER A COLD START FOR SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS THIS MORNING, IT
SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 80S TO NEAR 90F FOR THE
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS SLIGHTLY MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE
PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
OVERALL, MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST OVER THE PAST
24 HRS HAVE BEEN TO PUSH THE PATH OF THE EJECTING SYSTEM SLIGHTLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTH, AND DELAYING THE COLD FRONT FOR EASTERN CO
UNTIL TUE MORNING INSTEAD OF MON NIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND ABSORBS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS, FEEDING THIS
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN CO AND DRAMATICALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COVERAGE STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SIMON STARTS TO PUSH NORTH
ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE. FORECAST QPF TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY
TOTAL APPROXIMATELY AROUND .4 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS,
WHILE THE REST OF THE DIVIDE RECEIVES LESSER AMOUNTS. WHILE THE HIGH
VALLEYS WILL COOL A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES, THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN HOT. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 80S TO AROUND 90F
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONG PACIFIC LOW SYSTEM STAYS ANCHORED ALONG
THE CA COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY, KEEPING STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SYSTEM FINALLY MAKES
A PUSH ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE REMNANTS OF SIMON
SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE AND GET ABSORBED WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT AND PUSHED INTO CO, CONTINUING RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT MAINLY FOCUSING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
THE SOUTHERN MTS. FORECAST QPF SHOWS A BULLSEYE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MTS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY, OF AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
WATER, SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS STILL NOT RULED OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPS, THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN HOT AND ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARM WITH READINGS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S, THEN COOLING ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
WEEK, AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS CA, NV AND UT ON TUES, THEN CO
AND TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS ON WED. THE FORECAST PATH OF THE SYSTEM IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS, WHICH RESULTS IN TIMING
CHANGES FOR COOLING AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO
SPREAD FROM THE MTS TO ACROSS THE PLAINS. FIRST, A COLD FRONT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CO TUE MORNING, SO ANTICIPATED
HIGH TEMPS ON TUE ARE NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SECOND,
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE, SO THE TIME
FRAME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO
WED. FINALLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUE EVENING THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUE PUSHING
TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS TO WATCH HOW THIS
SYSTEM PROGRESSES, BUT WINDS MAY GET FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY WED AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE REGION, WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETTLING IN ACROSS
THE ROCKY MT REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON THU AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOORE
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WIND REGIMES REMAIN
EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STORM, WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. THIS CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW
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