345
FXUS65 KPUB 092350
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
550 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE
PLAINS REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
- MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK, MAINLY STARTING ON TUESDAY.
SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
PLAINS.
- FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AFTER TUESDAY, WITH A COMPLEX AND
QUICKLY-CHANGING SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, AS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WE'LL ALSO SEE A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSING WAVE WILL GIVE US
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER TODAY, MAINLY FOCUSED
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WILL MAINLY SEE RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. SNOW IS NOT LIKELY, GIVEN THAT
SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON TEND TO STAY ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET,
THOUGH IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS TO SEE A
FEW FLAKES. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND RATHER
DRY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH MID-HIGH 80S OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MID-70S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF A BIT TONIGHT, WITH MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGHS OUT WEST DEEPEN AND FUNNEL HIGHER
DEWPOINTS INTO OUR REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS, THOUGH NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN TERMS
OF ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS, WITH MID-HIGH 30S OVER THE VALLEYS.
SATURDAY WILL BE LARGELY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OUT
EAST AND IN THE 60S-70S OVER THE VALLEYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS MORE
MOISTURE IS FUNNELED INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
LOOKING AT THE LONG-TERM FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK, THE COMPLEXITY
REMAINS ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THERE WILL BE TWO
INTERACTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE COMING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S-80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH 60S OVER THE VALLEYS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SAN JUANS SPECIFICALLY. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LESSEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY,
WITH A BRIEF LULL JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEMS, THOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS REMAIN OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AGAIN
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT AREAS. AS OF
NOW, MOST OF, IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN, WITH
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 12 KFT.
TUESDAY AND ONWARDS...
THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX, AS
MODELS CONTINUOUSLY STRUGGLE TO DEAL WITH THE PHASING OF THE
MULTIPLE INTERACTING LOWS, AS WELL AS THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
RESULTING TROUGH AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR REGION. INITIAL COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY ON TUESDAY, GIVING US MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT EAST AND SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
AROUND THIS TIME, THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A SWITCH
FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS, SO TUESDAY WILL BE OUR
FIRM STARTING POINT FOR TRACKING SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MODELS.
MODELS GENERALLY HAVE THE LOW HITTING THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE
EXACT PATH THE LOW TAKES WILL HAVE SIZABLE IMPACTS ON HOW COLD WE
GET AND WHAT KINDS OF IMPACTS AND WEATHER WE WILL SEE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AS PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS STILL SOLELY RECEIVE RAIN. CURRENT LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS POINT, AND
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE DETAILS TO BECOME MORE CLEAR. BUT THE TRENDS
ARE HEAVILY LEANING TOWARDS A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT THE TERMINALS AFT 18Z SATURDAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page