013
FXUS65 KPUB 100635
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1235 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, STARTS TODAY AND
CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FIRST FREEZE FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
CURRENTLY...CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE
INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN CO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STARTS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE STARTING
TO PUSH INTO THE PAGOSA SPRINGS AND WOLF CREEK PASS AREA AS OF 11
PM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE MID
30S TO MID 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 50S FOR THE PLAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PACIFIC LOW CENTER OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST IS
SET TO ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL TODAY, WHILE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS, FEEDING THIS
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN CO. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING, EVIDENT BY THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALREADY PUSHING INTO WESTERN CO, WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY DAYBREAK.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE
DIVIDE, THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SW MTS THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO FAVORED TOPOGRAPHY. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY, AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS ALONG THE DIVIDE ARE IN THE RANGE OF
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THE HIGH
VALLEYS WILL COOL A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES, THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN HOT. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 80S TO AROUND 90F
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
IN THE PAST 24 HRS, MODELS HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED
SOLUTION THAT WILL HAVE DRAMATIC EFFECTS FOR SOUTHERN CO. FIRST, THE
UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST, OUTSIDE OF THE
"SWEET" SPOT FOR COPIOUS PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SAVE FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SECOND, THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICO
COASTLINE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH, AND WILL BE LESS OF A PLAYER IN
ADDITIONAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST BUT REALLY REMAINS ANCHORED THERE ON SUNDAY AND
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A FOCUS ON WESTERN CO AND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEANWHILE, THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND
AT TIMES BREEZY. LATEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE SHOWING AROUND .2 TO .3 OF
AN INCH TOTAL OVER BOTH DAYS FOR THE MTS, AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH MUCH OF THAT COMING SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
DECREASING QPF AMOUNTS, DO NOT FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS, THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN HOT AND ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90F. FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70F.
TUESDAY...MODELS FINALLY START THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUE, REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN QUAD OF CO BY THE EVENING.
THIS PATH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO THE PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING, AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR TUE MORNING
STILL IS THERE, THOUGH IT BACKDOORS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND DOES
NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. REGARDLESS, COOLER TEMPS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS, AND 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR THE PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO
WHEN TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FINALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR
THE MTS, BUT WEAKENING MOISTURE PLUME HAS REALLY PUT A DAMPER ON
POTENTIAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS. LATEST FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE COMING IN
AROUND 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES FOR THE PEAKS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS
AND FOR THE PEAKS IN LAKE COUNTY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SYSTEM CROSSES OVER CO AND WY
QUICKLY ON WED, REACHING THE DAKOTAS BY THU MORNING, ALLOWING STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO SWEEP ACROSS CO BOTH THU AND FRI.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FAIRLY DISMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER WED EVENING, BUT TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY BEGIN A COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT, FREEZING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND CONTINUING EACH NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. MOORE
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE TERMINALS
AFT 18Z SATURDAY. WINDS AT THE TERMINALS STAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AFT 00Z SUNDAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW
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