925
FXUS62 KRAH 141824
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED. THE INCOMING
SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED JUST ESE OF CHICAGO, WITH THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING S AND SSE, STILL WELL TO OUR W. THE
WARM/CAD FRONT RUNS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER SE AL ACROSS
CENTRAL GA AND E NC TO OFF THE S COAST OF NC. THE PRECEDING SWATH OF
RAIN, DRIVEN BY STRONG LFQ UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VIGOROUS DPVA ALOFT,
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, ALTHOUGH UP TO NOW, AMOUNTS AT THE
GROUND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHTLY, MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, AS
IT HAD TO INITIALLY OVERCOME A LAYER OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. BUT THE
12Z UA DATA SHOWS THAT THE COLUMN IS QUICKLY BECOMING SATURATED OVER
OUR AREA, WITH INCOMING BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOW SPREADING INTO
SW NC AND THE W PIEDMONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PEAK IN DEEP DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT. HIGH POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING DOWN W TO E FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN THE FORECAST
PACE ACROSS THE BOARD, AND WITH STEADY ADVECTION OF LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL NC HELPING TO REINFORCE THE STABLE CAD WEDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT, WE SHOULD SEE MINIMAL TEMP RISE OVER OUR NW HALF
TODAY, JUST ABOUT 1-2 CATEGORIES FROM THE CURRENT READINGS.
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY STILL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AS THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW BECOMES THE SECONDARY MILLER-B CAD LOW AND TRACKS NE
THROUGH TONIGHT, SO WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60 THERE. -GIH
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM: TODAY COULD BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL
DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SINCE HURRICANE HELENE
MOVED THROUGH IN LATE SEPTEMBER, ABOUT SIX WEEKS AGO. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS
WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST. A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER QUEBEC
WITH A RIDGE STILL EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST
OVER OHIO BY THIS EVENING, CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH, THE SURFACE
LOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION: CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE CURRENT AIRMASS IS OVER NORTH
CAROLINA, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY HOW LONG IT WILL
TAKE RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND REACH THE GROUND. EXPECT RAIN
TO MOVE INTO THE TRIAD FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, APPROACH THE
TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE BY NOON, AND MOVE EAST OF I-95 DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE HREF OF A LINE
WITH 0.1"/HR RATES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(WITH 0.25"/HR RATES FROM THE TRIANGLE EAST), AND IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE VERIFYING RATES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE TRIAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE US-1 CORRIDOR AFTER SUNSET, AND THE I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE TRIAD EARLY THIS EVENING, LATE IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE
TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE, AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
NEAR ROCKY MOUNT. HOWEVER, WITH THE SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
COAST, AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT EAST OF I-40, FINALLY WINDING DOWN FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF
RALEIGH. STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. ALONG THE US-64
CORRIDOR, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ALSO RELATIVELY UNCHANGED, WITH ABOUT
1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. NORTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL, WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS: WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CONSIDERING THE STABLE SURFACE REGIME BROUGHT
BY COLD-AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE COAST, THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, PRIMARILY CUMBERLAND, SAMPSON, AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES: THE COLD-AIR DAMMING WEDGE IS PRETTY STRONG WITH THIS
EVENT, AND BLENDED THE NAM AND NBM 10TH PERCENTILE INTO THE
INHERITED FORECAST FOR TODAY'S HIGHS. THIS KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE TRIAD AND ROXBORO, THE LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE US-1
CORRIDOR, AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF I-95. TONIGHT'S LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S. WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S, WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE
LONGEST AND THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MOST OF THE
DAY WILL BE SUNNY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
THE CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE NEAR TERM WILL BE
WELL OFF THE NC COAST ON FRIDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE, A RIDGE ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER GA AND SC ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH PW VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 65% OF NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
NEAR NORMAL TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS BELT OF 100+ KT WINDS SPREADS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AN MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE TYPICALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. -BLAES
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK.
* GREATER THAN TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY WITH FORECAST DETAILS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIP
EAST ACROSS FL EARLY MONDAY AND THEN BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. MEANWHILE MULTIPLE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND EVOLVE INTO A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS ALL OF THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MID WEEK. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL TRANSITION TO A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. IN ADDITION, A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ACROSS FL BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS GREATER THAN TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THESE FEATURES
WILL EVOLVE BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
IF THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH CLOSES OFF IS
SLOWER THAN PROGGED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE DELAYED A BIT. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS
MODERATING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
COOLING OFF A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. -BLAES
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD:
A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD(S) OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM TO EAST.
THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR
CEILINGS THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z
COULD LEAD TO MODEST IMPROVEMENT AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS, WITH
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING TO MVFR DURING THAT TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT GRADUAL WEST TO EAST IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, NWLY WIND GUST OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WILL DEVELOP AS CEILINGS LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/GREEN
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...CBL
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