818
FXUS62 KRAH 141954
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL, AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NC, WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE CAD WEDGE,
STRONG LFQ UPPER DIVERGENCE, AND VIGOROUS DVPA ALOFT, ALL ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE INCOMING SURFACE LOW
IS ANALYZED OVER SW LOWER MI, WITH THE TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT
RUNNING S THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN/AL. THE WARM/CAD FRONT HAS LIFTED A
BIT NORTHWARD FROM THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT OVER EAST-CENTRAL AL ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST, AND IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WE'RE STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM FRONT, SPECIFICALLY
OVER SE GA, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CULMINATE IN A DEEPENING
SECONDARY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS E AND NE ALONG THE CAD
FRONT THROUGH E NC. THE CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD IS TRACKING ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FASTER THAN THE LATEST RAP RUNS, SO APART FROM THIS SLIGHT
TIMING TWEAK TO SPEED THINGS UP, WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF 100% POPS
AS THIS HEAVIER RAIN AREA MARCHES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HRS,
WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF W TO E MID TO LATE EVENING BEHIND THE
PEAK DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH THE DECLINE IN MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL RETAIN RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FAR NE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, AS THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OUTER BANKS, KEEPING A STEADY INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR
NORTHEAST (N OF THE LOW), WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NE NC, PROVIDING AN EXTRA BOOST OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THE RISK OF THUNDER THROUGH TONIGHT IS FAIRLY LOW OVERALL IN
OUR AREA, WITH INCREASING BUT STILL-MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MOVING IN THIS EVENING, AND DRIER AIR ALOFT PUNCHING IN FROM THE W
AND WSW, NOTED ON GOES LAYER WV IMAGERY. BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM
SECTOR NOT FAR AWAY, PERHAPS EASING INTO OUR FAR SE, WITH A QUICKLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, ISOLATED POCKETS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FAR SE
INTO MID EVENING. TEMPS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CAD
EVENTS, WITH MODEST RISES INTO THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD RANGING TO
MILDER MID 50S IN THE SE, WHERE TEMPS MAY WARM FURTHER INTO THIS
EVENING. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOW-MID 40S W TO AROUND
50/LOWER 50S IN THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN, AS PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT, CURBING NOCTURNAL
COOLING. -GIH
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
THE CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE NEAR TERM WILL BE
WELL OFF THE NC COAST ON FRIDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE, A RIDGE ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER GA AND SC ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH PW VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 65% OF NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
NEAR NORMAL TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS BELT OF 100+ KT WINDS SPREADS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AN MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE TYPICALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. -BLAES
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 PM THURSDAY...
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
THANKS TO SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 60S, WHILE LOW TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40, SO FROST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SUNDAY
MORNING, ESP THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
BY MONDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BUT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RESULTING SLY
FLOW WILL COMMENCE A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH DAYS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE CLOUDS, LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL HOLD IN THE 50S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK GIVEN THAT THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON WHERE THAT HAPPENS, WE
COULD GET DRY SLOTTED AND DRY OUT, OR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
COULD STALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH
THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD:
A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD(S) OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM TO EAST.
THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR
CEILINGS THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z
COULD LEAD TO MODEST IMPROVEMENT AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS, WITH
CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING TO MVFR DURING THAT TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT GRADUAL WEST TO EAST IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, NWLY WIND GUST OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WILL DEVELOP AS CEILINGS LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...CBL
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