490
FXUS62 KRAH 150024
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
724 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL, AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NC, WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE CAD WEDGE,
STRONG LFQ UPPER DIVERGENCE, AND VIGOROUS DVPA ALOFT, ALL ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE INCOMING SURFACE LOW
IS ANALYZED OVER SW LOWER MI, WITH THE TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT
RUNNING S THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN/AL. THE WARM/CAD FRONT HAS LIFTED A
BIT NORTHWARD FROM THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT OVER EAST-CENTRAL AL ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST, AND IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WE'RE STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM FRONT, SPECIFICALLY
OVER SE GA, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CULMINATE IN A DEEPENING
SECONDARY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS E AND NE ALONG THE CAD
FRONT THROUGH E NC. THE CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD IS TRACKING ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FASTER THAN THE LATEST RAP RUNS, SO APART FROM THIS SLIGHT
TIMING TWEAK TO SPEED THINGS UP, WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF 100% POPS
AS THIS HEAVIER RAIN AREA MARCHES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HRS,
WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF W TO E MID TO LATE EVENING BEHIND THE
PEAK DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH THE DECLINE IN MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL RETAIN RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FAR NE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, AS THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OUTER BANKS, KEEPING A STEADY INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR
NORTHEAST (N OF THE LOW), WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NE NC, PROVIDING AN EXTRA BOOST OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THE RISK OF THUNDER THROUGH TONIGHT IS FAIRLY LOW OVERALL IN
OUR AREA, WITH INCREASING BUT STILL-MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MOVING IN THIS EVENING, AND DRIER AIR ALOFT PUNCHING IN FROM THE W
AND WSW, NOTED ON GOES LAYER WV IMAGERY. BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM
SECTOR NOT FAR AWAY, PERHAPS EASING INTO OUR FAR SE, WITH A QUICKLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, ISOLATED POCKETS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FAR SE
INTO MID EVENING. TEMPS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CAD
EVENTS, WITH MODEST RISES INTO THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD RANGING TO
MILDER MID 50S IN THE SE, WHERE TEMPS MAY WARM FURTHER INTO THIS
EVENING. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOW-MID 40S W TO AROUND
50/LOWER 50S IN THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN, AS PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT, CURBING NOCTURNAL
COOLING. -GIH
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...
FOLLOWING THE RECENT CONSISTENT CAM RUNS AND HREF OUTPUT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE CWA THROUGH FRI MORNING, WITH THE
UPPER LOW DIVING SE THROUGH NE NC, PROVIDING AN UPTICK IN FORCING
FOR ASCENT, WHILE THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS FRI
MORNING KEEPS A STOUT MOIST NE FLOW INTO THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO GRADUALLY BACK TO A DRIER N AND NNW TRAJECTORY, RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD END IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FROM W
TO E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS FRI FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S
NE, WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL HAMPER HEATING, TO THE MID 60S SW.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S FRI NIGHT, UNDER FAIR
SKIES AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. -GIH
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 PM THURSDAY...
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
THANKS TO SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 60S, WHILE LOW TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40, SO FROST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SUNDAY
MORNING, ESP THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
BY MONDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BUT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RESULTING SLY
FLOW WILL COMMENCE A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH DAYS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE CLOUDS, LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL HOLD IN THE 50S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK GIVEN THAT THE TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON WHERE THAT HAPPENS, WE
COULD GET DRY SLOTTED AND DRY OUT, OR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
COULD STALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH
THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 720 PM THURSDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS IS CONTINUING TO BRING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE (LOCALLY HEAVY) RAIN TO CENTRAL NC. THIS RAIN HAS NOW
PUSHED EAST OF INT/GSO, WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES THERE, WHILE
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITIES PERSIST AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS.
THE RAIN SHOULD END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT RDU AND FAY,
WHILE THE HEAVIEST/STEADIEST WILL END BY AROUND 06Z AT RWI, THOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER AROUND RWI AT TIMES INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE OTHER AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL NC AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY HAVEN'T QUITE REACHED THE FAR NE (INCLUDING
RWI), BUT THEY WILL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DRIER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A SCATTERING TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN THE TRIAD AS SOON AS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN VFR THERE BY MID MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR
BY MID MORNING AT RDU/FAY AND LATE MORNING AT RWI, WITH VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AT RDU/FAY AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT RWI.
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BACK A
BIT TO THE NNW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AT
TIMES.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...DANCO
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