816
FXUS62 KRAH 151426
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
925 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY, AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS
PUSHES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN
AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT CONSIDERABLE CLEARING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE WEST. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING JUST OFF HSE, WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN
VA/NC BORDER AREA ACCORDING TO UA ANALYSES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES AN ESE DRIFT AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT TO A DRIER
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE NE
WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE, FAVORING A GRADUAL ERODING OF LOW CLOUDS
AREAWIDE AND AN ENDING TO POPS OVER THE NE, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY YET OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON THERE. OTHERWISE, ONCE THE MID
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON,
INCREASING AND DEEPENING SUBSIDENCE AND RISING SURFACE PRESSURES
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SUNSHINE, WITH THE FAR NE SECTIONS THE
LAST TO SEE SUNSHINE. LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS STILL
SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW. -GIH
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 255 AM: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS JUST OFF
CAPE HATTERAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST. AN UPPER
LOW NEAR WASHINGTON DC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF RAINFALL HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE, RAIN STILL EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA SOUTHWEST TO ROCKY MOUNT. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD, NOT COMING TO AN END IN NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST, IT WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WIND, WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH. CLEARING SHOULD GRADUALLY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, WHILE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL
NEARLY SUNSET IN THE EAST. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD COVER,
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS PERSIST
THE LONGEST, ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER, WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY, SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, THE WIND SHOULD RELAX
OVERNIGHT, DROPPING BACK TO 3-5 MPH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
THE MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEPARTS FURTHER EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND TOWARD THE REGION BUT WILL RETREAT
AND EVENTUALLY BE REPLACE BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.
THUS SATURDAY WILL THE THE START OF A TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BENEATH A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY
IN THE DAY, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING INTO THE 1330M RANGE SUPPORT OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S IN THE RURAL AND TYPICALLY COLDER
AREAS UNDER CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. SOME FROST CONCERNS MAY
EXIST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
**ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
PATTERN CHANGE AND POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND.
**MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT FORECAST
REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST US AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY
AND LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY/TUESDAY (AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT). NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 16–19 ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SO HIGH
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 10° ABOVE NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REPLACE THE RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN US. INITIALLY, AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SEND A LEAD COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY, WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PATTERN
CHANGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND (AS ADVERTISED BY
CPC’S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK).
THE DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE GET WITH EITHER OR BOTH COLD FRONTS.
THERE APPEAR TO BE TWO MAIN CLUSTERS WITHIN THE GREATER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE; ONE WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT
REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY AND ANOTHER, SLOWER
SOLUTION WHERE THE TROUGH IS BACK OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD APPEARS TO BE HIGH, AND THUS GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH
TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S BY THURSDAY. THE
RAINFALL FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED N
PART WITH TROPICAL STORM SARA, WHICH IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US BUT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD GET DRAWN NORTH
ALONG THE COLD FRONT(S).
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 625 AM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO LIFT AT INT/GSO, WHILE
RDU/FAY/RWI CONTINUE TO HAVE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AS OF 11Z. CLOUDS
WILL LIFT/SCATTER AROUND NOON AT RDU/FAY AND RWI SHOULD KEEP A
CEILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING
BEFORE AFTERNOON GUSTS DEVELOP BETWEEN 15-20 KT. GUSTS SHOULD END
AROUND SUNSET, BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KT AND
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER LATER IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK;
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
CONCLUDES.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/GREEN
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...GREEN
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