466
FXUS62 KRAH 151941
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY, AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS
PUSHES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IL
WILL DRIFT E AND ENE OVER N IN/OH THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE THE DEEP
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST DRIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THICKER AND
MORE NUMEROUS CLOUDS PIVOTING AROUND THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND
CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL LOW WILL STEADILY BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE AS
THE LOW EXITS, WHILE THE STRATOCU SPILLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING SSE THROUGH THE W PIEDMONT WILL LIKEWISE
SUCCUMB TO INCREASING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN
OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING
WITH RISING MSLP OVER CENTRAL NC, WE SHOULD SEE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WITH SLIGHT
STIRRING LIKELY TO KEEP READINGS ABOVE THE POINT OF CONCERN FOR
FROST OVERNIGHT. -GIH
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED SAT, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SAT MORNING WILL DRIFT SE TO OVER NC SAT NIGHT,
WHILE ALOFT, A DRY NW TRAJECTORY AND MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A SUBSIDING AND DEEPLY
STABLE COLUMN. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLAT CU WITH HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE ABUNDANT INSOLATION WHICH, ALONG WITH
REBOUNDING THICKNESSES, WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S (LOW 60S N TO
UPPER 60S S). MODELS SUPPORT SOME THIN CIRRUS OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE
AND SPREADING INTO NC SAT NIGHT, AND IF WE SEE A SMALL UPPER JETLET
PASSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/VA, AS SOME MODELS INDICATE, THE
VERTICAL THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF THE CIRRUS, LEADING TO POTENTIALLY THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE
IMPACTS OF SUCH AN OCCURRENCE WOULD BE MAINLY TO SLIGHTLY CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. SO WHILE THE DIMINISHING WINDS TO NEAR CALM SAT
NIGHT (AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD) SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, IF WE DO INDEED SEE
THICKER CLOUDS, THE RISK OF FROST IN THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER. BUT
FOR NOW, WILL CARRY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE N
AND W PIEDMONT, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. -GIH
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
**ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
PATTERN CHANGE AND POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND.
**MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT FORECAST
REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST US AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY
AND LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY/TUESDAY (AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT). NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 16–19 ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SO HIGH
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 10° ABOVE NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REPLACE THE RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN US. INITIALLY, AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SEND A LEAD COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY, WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PATTERN
CHANGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND (AS ADVERTISED BY
CPC’S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK).
THE DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE GET WITH EITHER OR BOTH COLD FRONTS.
THERE APPEAR TO BE TWO MAIN CLUSTERS WITHIN THE GREATER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE; ONE WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT
REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY AND ANOTHER, SLOWER
SOLUTION WHERE THE TROUGH IS BACK OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD APPEARS TO BE HIGH, AND THUS GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH
TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S BY THURSDAY. THE
RAINFALL FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED N
PART WITH TROPICAL STORM SARA, WHICH IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US BUT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD GET DRAWN NORTH
ALONG THE COLD FRONT(S).
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
RDU/FAY/RWI SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SLOWLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ALL
SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING GUSTS OCCURRING
SHOULD ALSO END AROUND SUNSET. AFTERNOON GUSTS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN SITES, BUT MY CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR MID-WEEK, BUT IMPACTS APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...HELOCK
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