630
FXUS62 KRAH 151954
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
252 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY, AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS
PUSHES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IL
WILL DRIFT E AND ENE OVER N IN/OH THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE THE DEEP
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST DRIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THICKER AND
MORE NUMEROUS CLOUDS PIVOTING AROUND THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND
CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL LOW WILL STEADILY BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE AS
THE LOW EXITS, WHILE THE STRATOCU SPILLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING SSE THROUGH THE W PIEDMONT WILL LIKEWISE
SUCCUMB TO INCREASING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN
OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING
WITH RISING MSLP OVER CENTRAL NC, WE SHOULD SEE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WITH SLIGHT
STIRRING LIKELY TO KEEP READINGS ABOVE THE POINT OF CONCERN FOR
FROST OVERNIGHT. -GIH
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED SAT, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SAT MORNING WILL DRIFT SE TO OVER NC SAT NIGHT,
WHILE ALOFT, A DRY NW TRAJECTORY AND MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A SUBSIDING AND DEEPLY
STABLE COLUMN. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLAT CU WITH HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE ABUNDANT INSOLATION WHICH, ALONG WITH
REBOUNDING THICKNESSES, WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S (LOW 60S N TO
UPPER 60S S). MODELS SUPPORT SOME THIN CIRRUS OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE
AND SPREADING INTO NC SAT NIGHT, AND IF WE SEE A SMALL UPPER JETLET
PASSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/VA, AS SOME MODELS INDICATE, THE
VERTICAL THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF THE CIRRUS, LEADING TO POTENTIALLY THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE
IMPACTS OF SUCH AN OCCURRENCE WOULD BE MAINLY TO SLIGHTLY CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. SO WHILE THE DIMINISHING WINDS TO NEAR CALM SAT
NIGHT (AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD) SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, IF WE DO INDEED SEE
THICKER CLOUDS, THE RISK OF FROST IN THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER. BUT
FOR NOW, WILL CARRY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE N
AND W PIEDMONT, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. -GIH
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 251 PM FRIDAY...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE ZONAL LATE
MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US. FLOW FINALLY TURNS MORE SWLY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY/MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. SLY SFC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PROMOTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S SUNDAY, WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WRT TO HOW MUCH RAIN WE MAY SEE MID-WEEK WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS ENSEMBLES DISAGREE SOMEWHAT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE
COULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A CLASSIC CAROLINA SPLIT, WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WEST AND NORTH OF US WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW, AND TO OUR
SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC SARA. OTHERS ARE A BIT MORE
ROBUST IN PUMPING SARAH'S MOISTURE CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
(GEPS/EPS/UKMET), AND AS SUCH PROMOTE WETTER CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.
FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END CHANCE POPS PEAKING TUESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS MAY BE QUITE COLD, WITH THE NBM ALREADY
SUGGESTING LOWER TO MID 50S HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLES/FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POST-FRONTAL WINDS COULD GET QUITE GUSTY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LATE THIS WEEK MAY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
RDU/FAY/RWI SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SLOWLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ALL
SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING GUSTS OCCURRING
SHOULD ALSO END AROUND SUNSET. AFTERNOON GUSTS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN SITES, BUT MY CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR MID-WEEK, BUT IMPACTS APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...HELOCK
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