966
FXUS62 KRAH 160700
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...
SKIES HAVE COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING
THANKS TO STRONG NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS THAT IS MOVING FURTHER
INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER WESTERN IN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND APPROACH WESTERN OH BY
EARLY MORNING, WHILE THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO
NEAR BERMUDA. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIGHT STIRRING OVERNIGHT, BUT MANY SITES ARE
REPORTING CALM WINDS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT, AND THIS IS
ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW SITES WHERE WINDS ARE CALM. GUIDANCE
IS VERY UNIMPRESSED WITH THIS POTENTIAL OVERALL, THOUGH IT WASN'T
SHOWING THE FOG WE ARE OBSERVING NOW. STILL, WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. DESPITE THE LIGHT STIRRING, CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COOL
SPOTS LIKE KIXA AND KTTA HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER-40S. SO
FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM UPPER-30S THERE TO LOWER-TO-MID-40S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL STAY JUST ABOVE THE POINT OF
CONCERN FOR FROST FOR THE MOST PART, GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVED DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED SAT, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SAT MORNING WILL DRIFT SE TO OVER NC SAT NIGHT,
WHILE ALOFT, A DRY NW TRAJECTORY AND MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A SUBSIDING AND DEEPLY
STABLE COLUMN. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLAT CU WITH HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE ABUNDANT INSOLATION WHICH, ALONG WITH
REBOUNDING THICKNESSES, WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S (LOW 60S N TO
UPPER 60S S). MODELS SUPPORT SOME THIN CIRRUS OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE
AND SPREADING INTO NC SAT NIGHT, AND IF WE SEE A SMALL UPPER JETLET
PASSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/VA, AS SOME MODELS INDICATE, THE
VERTICAL THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF THE CIRRUS, LEADING TO POTENTIALLY THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE
IMPACTS OF SUCH AN OCCURRENCE WOULD BE MAINLY TO SLIGHTLY CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. SO WHILE THE DIMINISHING WINDS TO NEAR CALM SAT
NIGHT (AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD) SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, IF WE DO INDEED SEE
THICKER CLOUDS, THE RISK OF FROST IN THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER. BUT
FOR NOW, WILL CARRY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE N
AND W PIEDMONT, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
* MILD HIGHS MON-WED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, FOLLOWED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
* MAIN PERIOD OF POTENTIAL UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE THROUGH WED
MILD WEATHER WILL START OUR WORK WEEK AS RIDGING NEAR CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FL AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US KEEPS US IN
A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD
ARE FAVORED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
MID 70S ON WED OVER THE SANDHILLS.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BE THE FOCUS AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. THE FIRST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MON INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUE EVENING. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC SARA. WHILE ITS
REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION, PW'S
INCREASE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO ~ 1.5 INCHES. A FRONT LOOKS TO GET
HUNG UP OVER THE TN VALLEY TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES STILL VARY ON RAIN CHANCES TUE INTO WED, WITH THE EC/GEPS
A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE GFS/GEFS. THE GFS PERHAPS IS HINTING AT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN FL ROBBING US OF THE MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT IN
30-40 PERCENT POPS TUE NIGHT GIVEN THE PREDOMINANT ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
SOLUTION FAVORING THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF, WITH POPS HIGHEST ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
THE SECOND TROUGH IS LARGER, COMING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DEEPENING OVER THE OH VALLEY SOMETIME
THU. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROUGH AND WNW FLOW PERSISTING
INTO FRI. THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM WED DAY INTO EARLY THU AS A DEEPENING LOW BRINGS A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, GUSTY WSW TO WNW WINDS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 30 MPH THU/FRI,
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S. AS FOR
RAIN CHANCES, RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM SARA COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING ALOFT AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WARRANTS AT LEAST 20-40
PERCENT POPS WED AFTN AND NIGHT, HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
IF THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME THERMODYNAMICS, WHICH APPEARS
LIMITED THUS FAR, A STORM THREAT COULD BE POSSIBLE WED GIVEN THE
STRONG KINEMATICS IN PLACE. THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES THROUGH THU,
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT NW-N SURFACE
WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT RWI, WHERE SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF AND ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS OVER CNTL
NC TUE NIGHT-WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...DANCO
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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