204
FXUS62 KRAH 161737
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1237 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...
..SUNNY AND PLEASANT TODAY
...RISK OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS
TONIGHT...
UNDERNEATH INCREASING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE WITH
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING DEAD CALM AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD.
AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ARRIVE TOO LATE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVELY IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT. LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER
OUTLYING/RURAL AREAS. THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WET SOILS
FROM THURSDAY'S WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A MODERATING LIGHT WSW FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS TOPPING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIKELY MAKING THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 65-70 RANGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MILDER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
* MILD HIGHS MON-WED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, FOLLOWED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
* MAIN PERIOD OF POTENTIAL UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE THROUGH WED
MILD WEATHER WILL START OUR WORK WEEK AS RIDGING NEAR CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FL AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US KEEPS US IN
A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD
ARE FAVORED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
MID 70S ON WED OVER THE SANDHILLS.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BE THE FOCUS AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. THE FIRST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MON INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUE EVENING. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC SARA. WHILE ITS
REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION, PW'S
INCREASE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO ~ 1.5 INCHES. A FRONT LOOKS TO GET
HUNG UP OVER THE TN VALLEY TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES STILL VARY ON RAIN CHANCES TUE INTO WED, WITH THE EC/GEPS
A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE GFS/GEFS. THE GFS PERHAPS IS HINTING AT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN FL ROBBING US OF THE MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT IN
30-40 PERCENT POPS TUE NIGHT GIVEN THE PREDOMINANT ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
SOLUTION FAVORING THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF, WITH POPS HIGHEST ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
THE SECOND TROUGH IS LARGER, COMING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DEEPENING OVER THE OH VALLEY SOMETIME
THU. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROUGH AND WNW FLOW PERSISTING
INTO FRI. THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM WED DAY INTO EARLY THU AS A DEEPENING LOW BRINGS A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, GUSTY WSW TO WNW WINDS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 30 MPH THU/FRI,
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S. AS FOR
RAIN CHANCES, RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM SARA COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING ALOFT AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WARRANTS AT LEAST 20-40
PERCENT POPS WED AFTN AND NIGHT, HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
IF THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME THERMODYNAMICS, WHICH APPEARS
LIMITED THUS FAR, A STORM THREAT COULD BE POSSIBLE WED GIVEN THE
STRONG KINEMATICS IN PLACE. THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES THROUGH THU,
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BETWEEN WED 12-18Z, WITH A RETURN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL YIELD FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...CBL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page