288
FXUS62 KRAH 161909
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
209 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...
..SUNNY AND PLEASANT TODAY
...RISK OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS
TONIGHT...
UNDERNEATH INCREASING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE WITH
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING DEAD CALM AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD.
AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ARRIVE TOO LATE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVELY IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT. LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER
OUTLYING/RURAL AREAS. THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WET SOILS
FROM THURSDAY'S WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...
ALOFT, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. A S/W WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
US SUN NIGHT, CLIPPING THE MID-ATLANTIC/NC ALONG THE WAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US COAST MON, WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SWLY
OVER CENTRAL NC. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST SUN
NIGHT, A LEE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL NC AND SURFACE WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE WLY, OR EVEN NWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN
NIGHT, WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS THE S/W PASSES TO THE
NORTH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOW 60S NE TO
UPPER 60S SW. LOWS COULD BE A BIT TRICKIER. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1360-1370 METER RANGE BY 12Z MON AND WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT (0-4
KTS) BY 12Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER IF THEY ARE
THINNER OR OF LESS COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED FORECAST LOWS MAY BE TOO
HIGH. ALL THAT SAID, FOR NOW HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 146 PM SATURDAY...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE ZONAL LATE MONDAY AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. FLOW
FINALLY TURNS MORE SWLY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A RE-ENFORCING STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE, STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. SLY SFC FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
PROMOTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER,
ANOMALOUS PWAT WILL TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MID-WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS AS FAR AS RAINFALL POTENTIAL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH, PROMOTING
HIGHER RAIN TOTALS IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH, MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC SARA WILL LIKELY PLUME UP INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT MORE
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH (WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY). THE
EPS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA,
BUT IT'S LOOKING MORE LIKE AN OUTLIER (THE GEPS IS TRENDING MORE
TOWARDS THE GEFS AS FAR AS SUGGESTING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN OUR
AREA.) STILL A BIT EARLY TO DISCUSS RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN THE 95TH PERCENTILE AMONGST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ONLY PUMPING OUT UPWARD OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN
AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
PEAKING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS, HOWEVER, IS THAT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW/VORT MAX EARLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME INDICATE SOME
LINGERING LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE (SOME SATURATION IN THE ICE
GROWTH ZONE), AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS. AS SUCH, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE ARE ISOLATED REPORTS OF GRAUPEL ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS MAY BE QUITE COLD, WITH THE NBM ALREADY
SUGGESTING LOWER TO MID 50S HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLES/FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POST-FRONTAL WINDS COULD GET QUITE GUSTY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LATE THIS WEEK MAY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BETWEEN WED 12-18Z, WITH A RETURN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL YIELD FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...CBL
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