898
FXUS62 KRAH 190610
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 940 PM MONDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTH OF THE REGION, ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. IN
THE SOUTH, WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARER, AREAS OF PATCHY FOG (POSSIBLY
DENSE) COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 247 PM MONDAY...
THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE DAY. SUBSEQUENT SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, BUT ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND FILTERED
SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF TODAY'S HIGHS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED
FLOW AND WAA FROM THE SFC UP TO 5K FT, AND RESULTING LIFT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, WILL WARRANT GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FROM SUNSET TUESDAY
ONWARD, BUT ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WAA IS MAXIMIZED. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WAA... MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 339 PM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY: LATEST GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY (MEAGER AT BEST) MAY
NOT COINCIDE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND
THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. SO WHILE WE'LL BE FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S), IT APPEARS THAT A LACK OF LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL
LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE. CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, SIMULATING SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING (WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SOUTH), FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF AN ISOLATED STORM CAN DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST GIVEN HOW STRONG THE SHEAR WILL BE. BUT AGAIN,
THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW WITH STRONG CAA IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH (AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY). AS SUCH, A DRASTIC
TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY TO HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAW NBM IS ALSO ALREADY SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME QUITE COLD NIGHTS PARTICULARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WE
COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP NEAR FREEZING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
ON MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, MAY PROMOTE SPRINKLES (AND PERHAPS ISOLATED GRAUPEL
REPORTS) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LASTLY, GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
LINGERING A BIT INTO SATURDAY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
THERE ARE INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF IFR TO LIFR GROUND FOG IN THE
EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. BOTH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE CHANCE OF MVFR THEN IFR CIGS AT KINT/KGSO BY AROUND
23Z/TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR FOG BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AT
KINT/KGSO, AND POSSIBLY REACHING KFAY AROUND 03Z-06Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR BY 12Z AT ALL SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT,
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THU AND FRI.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...HELOCK
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
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