005
FXUS62 KRAH 191134
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
635 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING, USHERING IN COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
ANOTHER WARM DAY, INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT, CONTINUED MILD.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE COAST
BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS TOPPING THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NC WITH MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS JUST
WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN TN/KY. SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES WHERE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED. MODELS SHOW THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD TRACK
EAST ACROSS GA AND PORTIONS OF SC, ONLY BRUSHING SOUTHERN NC TODAY.
HOWEVER, CLOUDINESS WILL BECOME THICKER AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY.
A WAA PATTERN WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO VA. MOST MODELS BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN THE WEST, WITH PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL EC DEPICTS SOME HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT 0.25 TO 0.50, WHILE OTHER MODELS
SUGGEST MUCH LESS AVERAGING AROUND 0.10 THROUGH 12Z/WEDNESDAY.
INTERESTINGLY, THE TRACK OF THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST (TO OUR
SOUTH) LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING SHOULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE DEEP SE AND OFFSHORE GA/SC LATER WHICH OFTEN PLAYS HAVOC WITH
THE QPF TO THE NORTH (OVER OUR REGION THIS TIME AROUND). WE PREFER
THE RATHER HIGH POP, BUT LOW QPF THROUGH 12Z/WED. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
0.1 TO MAYBE 0.25 SHOULD FAVOR THE WEST AND SOUTH, WITH LESS THAN
0.1 IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
EXPECT INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDINESS TODAY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN WEST AND SOUTH MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE DAY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TONIGHT, MAINLY WEST
AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELIMINATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY, THEN PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE DAY.
TURNING SHARPLY COLDER AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLEARING.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN
THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR, BUT VERY
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE COLD FRONT, BUT EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HARD TO
COME BY. DEW POINTS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, FROM
NEAR 60 EARLY IN THE DAY INTO THE 40S/50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT (THERE IS VERY
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AFTER THE EARLY MORNING CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN EXITS EAST) HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE LARGELY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
NW TO SE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 148 AM TUESDAY...
* BRISK WINDS AND MUCH COOLER THU INTO SAT
* FROSTY MORNINGS FRI THROUGH SUN MORNING
* POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THU AND FRI
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WED NIGHT, STRONG WSW TO WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THU THROUGH SAT
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE NE US AND HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE PLAINS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH
STRONG CAA WILL CREATE BRISK CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, AT
TIMES TO 35 MPH. ALOFT, A VIGOROUS UPPER-TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE
FROM THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE FAR NE US OVER THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THU THROUGH SAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOME 5-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S, WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ON FRI IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A RATHER STRONG VORT MAX ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRI. AT THIS
TIME, ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA BUILDS SOUTH, REACHING -6 DEGC AT 850MB.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SUGGEST SOME SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DOMINATE,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLURRIES/GRAUPEL OCCUR OVER THE
PIEDMONT AS THE VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY.
SOME FROSTY MORNINGS APPEAR FAVORED FRI THROUGH SUN MORNING. MODELS
SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME WEAK DECOUPLING COULD OCCUR FRI MORNING TO
FAVOR LOW TO MID 30S. SIMILAR LOWS ARE EXPECTED SUN MORNING AS
SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS FAVORED, FAVORING IMPROVED RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
SOME FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MAY BE LOWEST ON THU BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AS
DEWPOINTS CRASH INTO THE 20S. COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-35
MPH, THIS COULD PROMPT AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER OR EVEN BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE PATTERN TURNS MORE SEASONAL TO ABOVE AVERAGE SUN AND MON AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED IN THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S BY MON. SOME ENSEMBLE DATA DOES SUGGEST
INCREASING WAA AT LOW-LEVELS MON WITH A POTENTIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST. THIS COULD PROMOTE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR NW. FOR
NOW, HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. BOTH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE CHANCE OF MVFR THEN IFR CIGS AT KINT/KGSO
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR FOG
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AT KINT/KGSO, AND POSSIBLY REACHING KRDU AND KFAY
AROUND 06Z-12Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR BY 12Z AT ALL SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT,
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THU AND FRI.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
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