583
FXUS62 KRAH 160559
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1259 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR DAMMING WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS, WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING, THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 910 PM SUNDAY...
REGIONAL RADAR HIGHLIGHTS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUING TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF INTO VA THROUGH MID-
MORNING TOMORROW. OBSERVED RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE LAST FEW HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE HINTING AT A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR
FOG, PERHAPS SOME DENSE, FOR THOSE GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS REMAIN WARM
(LOWER TO MID 50S) AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS.
CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT THIS SOME, BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW-
LEVEL ENELY FLOW, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PERHAPS EVEN SOME
ADVECTION FOG OFF THE INNER COASTAL AREAS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS
KRWI/KGSB/KGWW AND THE LOCAL VICINITY. FURTHER WEST, LOWERING
STRATUS MAY PROMOTE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE TRIAD REGION AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S, ONLY
DROPPING 2-4 DEGREES IN THE NW PIEDMONT FROM THEIR AFTERNOON HIGH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM PM SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN US
THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT BEFORE THE CAD
ERODES THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY,
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN
AREAS) WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS SO LIMITED POPS TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S NW TO
MID/UPPER 60S SE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
GFS MOVES THIS LOW FASTER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, VERSUS THE
ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY, MODELS
AGREE THAT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LEAVING THE
REST OF THE FORECAST COOL AND DRY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID-60S TO LOW-70S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL EACH NIGHT, GOING FROM LOW 50S TUESDAY NIGHT TO UPPER
TEENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM MONDAY...
LIFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTL NC WHERE
THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY (IE. AT FAY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS), THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THOSE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT
PIEDMONT SITES AND MORE BRIEFLY AT RWI THIS MORNING. MATURE COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL MAINTAIN IFR RESTRICTIONS AT INT/GSO, WHILE A SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR AND LIKELY TO VFR AT FAY, RWI,
AND RDU SHOULD RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LIFR-IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT-TUE MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT-TUE
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT INT/GSO WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR-MVFR BY DAY AND LIFR-IFR BY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS COLD AIR DAMMING HOLDS OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE TO THE EAST, FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE LATE NIGHT-MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE SAME TIME.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...MWS
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