955
FXUS62 KRAH 160805
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR DAMMING WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS, WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING, THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN US
THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT BEFORE THE CAD
ERODES THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY,
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN
AREAS) WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS SO LIMITED POPS TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S NW TO
MID/UPPER 60S SE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN CANADA
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE. ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF/EPS HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN THE
GFS/GEFS, WHICH BRINGS POPS INTO THE REGION MORE QUICKLY. DID DECIDE
TO SLIGHTLY BACK OFF THE ARRIVAL OF CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POPS ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO SHOW A SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ONE AREA
FOCUSED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND A SECOND AREA FOCUSED
ALONG THE GULF STREAM, POTENTIALLY SPLITTING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE EXPANDED LIKELY POPS TO ALL LOCATIONS, BUT RIGHT NOW
THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO, WHERE THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH LOW OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN SKY COVER AND NO CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE CENTER DROPPING FROM MANITOBA ON SATURDAY INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PLUNGE HIGHS INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY
AND INTO THE 30S/40S ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHTS, THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM MONDAY...
LIFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTL NC WHERE
THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY (IE. AT FAY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS), THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THOSE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT
PIEDMONT SITES AND MORE BRIEFLY AT RWI THIS MORNING. MATURE COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL MAINTAIN IFR RESTRICTIONS AT INT/GSO, WHILE A SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR AND LIKELY TO VFR AT FAY, RWI,
AND RDU SHOULD RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LIFR-IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT-TUE MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT-TUE
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT INT/GSO WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR-MVFR BY DAY AND LIFR-IFR BY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS COLD AIR DAMMING HOLDS OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE TO THE EAST, FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE LATE NIGHT-MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE SAME TIME.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...MWS
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